International digital trade and synergetic control of pollution and carbon emissions: Theory and evidence based on a nonlinear framework

Amid the urgent global demand for emission reduction and climate change mitigation, the potential of digital trade (DTR) to synergetic control of pollution and carbon emissions (SCPCE) merits in-depth exploration. The study uses panel data from 93 countries between 2009 and 2021 and a nonlinear model to empirically analyze the impact of DTR on SCPCE. The results reveal a U-shaped relationship between DTR and SCPCE, indicating an initial suppressive effect followed by a subsequent positive impact. Interestingly, only high-income countries, robust-digital-infrastructure countries, and low-trade-barrier countries exhibit this U-shaped effect, whereas no significant impact is found in low-income countries, inadequate-digital-infrastructure countries and high-trade-barrier countries. Mechanism analysis shows that DTR influences SCPCE indirectly through a U-shaped impact on technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and energy efficiency. Further analysis indicates that proactive government interventions, such as strengthening environmental regulations, stimulating market vitality, and optimizing public discourse environments, can expedite the turning point of DTR's impact on SCPCE, thereby accelerating the governance process. This study provides new insights into achieving the dual goals of economic growth and environmental protection, offering valuable references for policymaking.