比较界定非本地植物病虫害爆发的内向和外向策略

IF 4.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 ENTOMOLOGY
Hongyu Sun, Jacob C. Douma, Martijn F. Schenk, Wopke van der Werf
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引用次数: 0

摘要

划定疫情范围是遏制和根除非本地植物有害生物的重要步骤。通常通过在最初发现的周围取样来划定暴发范围,只要发现侵染,就从该地点向几个方向移动(向外战略)。另一种向内的策略将需要从对边界位置的初步估计开始划界,然后向内采样,直到发现第一次虫害,或向外采样,直到没有发现更多的虫害。我们使用基于个体的模型来比较两种策略的有效性和采样努力。两者都成功地在划定的区域内控制了99%的受感染植物。然而,这两种方法都有较低的概率(< 15%)将所有侵染植物都包含在划定的区域内。内向策略的样本数量在很大程度上取决于最初假设的侵染区大小。该策略的最佳效果是对侵染区宽度进行准确的初步估计,而当估计的边界远远超出边界的真实位置时,样本量会急剧增加。因此,当边界位置不确定时,外向策略比内向策略平均使用更少的样本。这两种策略在界定由具有厚尾扩散的害虫引起的暴发时都容易出错。向内还是向外战略更有效,取决于疫情前沿真实位置的确定性。讨论了最大限度地提高爆发定界抽样的成本效益的可能性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Comparing inward and outward strategies for delimiting non-native plant pest outbreaks

The delimitation of outbreaks is an essential step in the containment and eradication of non-native plant pests. Outbreaks are habitually delimited by sampling around the initial finding, moving away from this locus in several directions as long as infestations are found (outward strategy). An alternative, inward, strategy would entail starting delimitation with an initial estimate of the location of the frontier and then sampling inward until the first infestations are found or outward until no more infestations are found. We used individual-based modelling to compare the effectiveness and sampling effort of the two strategies. Both successfully contained > 99% of infested plants within the delimited zone. Yet, both had a low probability (< 15%) of containing all the infested plants within the delimited zone. The number of samples of the inward strategy depended greatly on the size of the initially hypothesized infested zone. Best performance of this strategy was obtained with an accurate initial estimate of the infested zone width, while sample size increased strongly when the estimated frontier was far beyond the true location of the frontier. Consequently, the outward strategy uses fewer samples on average than the inward strategy when the position of the frontier is uncertain. Both strategies were prone to error when delimiting outbreaks caused by pests with fat-tailed dispersal. Whether the inward or outward strategy is more effective depends on the certainty about the true position of the leading frontier of the outbreak. Possibilities are discussed for maximizing the cost-effectiveness of sampling for outbreak delimitation.

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来源期刊
Journal of Pest Science
Journal of Pest Science 生物-昆虫学
CiteScore
10.40
自引率
8.30%
发文量
114
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Pest Science publishes high-quality papers on all aspects of pest science in agriculture, horticulture (including viticulture), forestry, urban pests, and stored products research, including health and safety issues. Journal of Pest Science reports on advances in control of pests and animal vectors of diseases, the biology, ethology and ecology of pests and their antagonists, and the use of other beneficial organisms in pest control. The journal covers all noxious or damaging groups of animals, including arthropods, nematodes, molluscs, and vertebrates. Journal of Pest Science devotes special attention to emerging and innovative pest control strategies, including the side effects of such approaches on non-target organisms, for example natural enemies and pollinators, and the implementation of these strategies in integrated pest management. Journal of Pest Science also publishes papers on the management of agro- and forest ecosystems where this is relevant to pest control. Papers on important methodological developments relevant for pest control will be considered as well.
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