{"title":"气候变化下加拿大马铃薯产量预测","authors":"Guillaume Jégo, Marianne Crépeau, Qi Jing, Brian Grant, Ward Smith, Morteza Mesbah, Budong Qian","doi":"10.1002/agj2.70017","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Potato (<i>Solanum tuberosum</i> L.) is an important staple crop in Canada. Past studies have forecasted future yield decreases under climate change, which could have major consequences for the economy of some regions. However, limitations in those studies suggest that further investigations are needed. In this study, we simulated the effect of 15 climate change scenarios (classified from low to moderate and high) on potato potential (no N and water stresses) and rainfed (no N stress) yields at 59 locations across Canada representing current and future potential production regions using three crop models (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer [DSSAT], DeNitrification and DeComposition [DNDC], and Simulateur mulTI-disciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard [STICS]). Simulation trends were generally consistent across all three crop models and suggested (1) an increase in potential and rainfed yields in the future (up to 4.4 t ha<sup>−1</sup> dry matter in 2051–2080 compared with 1991–2020) in the northern regions where production is currently limited, if not impossible, due to a too short growing season; (2) a slight-to-moderate increase in potential and rainfed yields in the near future (2021–2050) for the remaining regions with greater increases for drier regions (0.7–3.1 t ha<sup>−1</sup>) than in wetter regions (0.5–1.4 t ha<sup>−1</sup>); and (3) stable or lower yields (up to −2.7 t ha<sup>−1</sup>) in the distant future (2051–2080), for most regions except the northern ones, due to excessively high temperatures, especially in the moderate and high-climate change scenarios. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
马铃薯(Solanum tuberosum L.)是加拿大重要的主要作物。过去的研究预测,在气候变化的影响下,未来的产量会下降,这可能对一些地区的经济产生重大影响。然而,这些研究的局限性表明需要进一步的调查。在这项研究中,我们使用三种作物模型(农业技术转移决策支持系统[DSSAT]、反硝化和分解[DNDC]和Simulateur多学科倒液栽培标准[STICS]),模拟了15种气候变化情景(从低到中和高)对加拿大59个地区马铃薯潜力(无氮和水胁迫)和雨养(无氮胁迫)产量的影响。所有三种作物模型的模拟趋势总体上是一致的,并表明:(1)在北方地区,由于生长季节太短,目前生产有限,如果不是不可能,未来的潜在和雨养产量将增加(与1991-2020年相比,2051-2080年将增加4.4 t ha - 1干物质);(2)在不久的将来(2021-2050年),其余地区的潜在和雨养产量将有轻微至中度的增加,其中干旱地区(0.7-3.1 tha - 1)的增幅大于湿润地区(0.5-1.4 tha - 1);(3)在遥远的未来(2051-2080年),除北方地区外,大多数地区由于温度过高,特别是在中度和高度气候变化情景下,产量稳定或降低(最高可达- 2.7 t ha - 1)。这项研究首次对加拿大未来的马铃薯产量进行了广泛的预测,包括可能生产的北部地区。
Potato yield projections under climate change in Canada
Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is an important staple crop in Canada. Past studies have forecasted future yield decreases under climate change, which could have major consequences for the economy of some regions. However, limitations in those studies suggest that further investigations are needed. In this study, we simulated the effect of 15 climate change scenarios (classified from low to moderate and high) on potato potential (no N and water stresses) and rainfed (no N stress) yields at 59 locations across Canada representing current and future potential production regions using three crop models (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer [DSSAT], DeNitrification and DeComposition [DNDC], and Simulateur mulTI-disciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard [STICS]). Simulation trends were generally consistent across all three crop models and suggested (1) an increase in potential and rainfed yields in the future (up to 4.4 t ha−1 dry matter in 2051–2080 compared with 1991–2020) in the northern regions where production is currently limited, if not impossible, due to a too short growing season; (2) a slight-to-moderate increase in potential and rainfed yields in the near future (2021–2050) for the remaining regions with greater increases for drier regions (0.7–3.1 t ha−1) than in wetter regions (0.5–1.4 t ha−1); and (3) stable or lower yields (up to −2.7 t ha−1) in the distant future (2051–2080), for most regions except the northern ones, due to excessively high temperatures, especially in the moderate and high-climate change scenarios. This study gave the first extensive projections of future potato yield in Canada, including northern locations where production may become possible.
期刊介绍:
After critical review and approval by the editorial board, AJ publishes articles reporting research findings in soil–plant relationships; crop science; soil science; biometry; crop, soil, pasture, and range management; crop, forage, and pasture production and utilization; turfgrass; agroclimatology; agronomic models; integrated pest management; integrated agricultural systems; and various aspects of entomology, weed science, animal science, plant pathology, and agricultural economics as applied to production agriculture.
Notes are published about apparatus, observations, and experimental techniques. Observations usually are limited to studies and reports of unrepeatable phenomena or other unique circumstances. Review and interpretation papers are also published, subject to standard review. Contributions to the Forum section deal with current agronomic issues and questions in brief, thought-provoking form. Such papers are reviewed by the editor in consultation with the editorial board.