新兴经济体普惠金融与经济增长的相互作用

Shreya Pal , Shravni Vankila , Melvin Norbert Fernandes
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摘要

本研究利用动态模拟ARDL和Driscoll-Kraay标准误差技术,深入研究了1990年至2022年新兴经济体普惠金融(包括传统和数字)与经济增长之间的复杂联系。主要研究结果表明,传统的普惠金融与经济增长呈正相关,而数字普惠金融则存在障碍。此外,财政、货币和贸易政策也发挥着至关重要的作用:巴西、哥伦比亚和墨西哥的财政政策分别侧重于基础设施、社会项目和税收改革,以刺激经济增长。货币政策包括巴西的通货膨胀目标制,土耳其的利率调整,以及印度的促进创业的MUDRA计划。贸易政策,如智利的自由贸易协定和墨西哥参与北美自由贸易协定,改善了市场准入和经济弹性,而埃及和沙特阿拉伯则侧重于外国直接投资和经济多样化。该研究强调协调一致的政策努力以实现持续增长,倡导在基础设施和医疗保健等关键领域强有力的监管和政府投资的支持下实现金融包容性。央行的贡献在于维持价格稳定和信贷准入,而战略贸易协定和出口多样化则增强了经济韧性。研究的重点是新兴经济体和宏观层面的见解,因此需要在微观层面进行进一步的研究,以完善这些结果。通过保持政策一致性和定期评估,这些战略旨在促进包容性的长期经济增长。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Interplay of financial inclusion and economic growth in emerging economies
This study delves into the complex link between financial inclusion—both traditional and digital—and economic growth across emerging economies from 1990 to 2022, using Dynamic Simulated ARDL and Driscoll-Kraay Standard Error techniques. Key findings highlight that traditional financial inclusion correlates positively with economic growth, whereas digital financial inclusion presents obstacles. Additionally, fiscal, monetary, and trade policies play vital roles: fiscal policies in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico focus on infrastructure, social programs, and tax reforms, respectively, to spur growth. Monetary policies include Brazil's inflation targeting, Turkey's interest rate adjustments, and India's MUDRA scheme, which promotes entrepreneurship. Trade policies, such as Chile's Free Trade Agreements and Mexico's participation in NAFTA, improve market access and economic resilience, while Egypt and Saudi Arabia focus on foreign direct investment and economic diversification.
The study emphasizes coordinated policy efforts for sustained growth, advocating for financial inclusion supported by robust regulations and government investments in critical areas like infrastructure and healthcare. Central banks contribute by maintaining price stability and credit access, while strategic trade agreements and export diversification enhance economic resilience. The focus of the study on emerging economies and macro-level insights calls for further research at the micro-level to refine these results. By maintaining policy coherence and regular evaluations, these strategies aim to foster inclusive, long-term economic growth.
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