Assessing and mapping changes in soil ecosystem services and soil threats in agroecosystems through scenario-based approaches – A systematic review

Scenario analysis plays a central role in estimating how global changes affect the relationships linking ecosystem conditions and functioning to human needs. This is particularly true for agroecosystems, which are pivotal to ensure sustainable land planning, ecological management and food security strategies. Soils are key providers of multiple ecosystem services (ES) in agroecosystems but they are very sensitive to global drivers such as changes in climate, land use and cover. How agroecosystems should achieve sustainability, through optimizing soil capacity to supply ES while limiting the occurrence of threats, is a priority of EU policy agendas. Nevertheless, there is currently a lack of a comprehensive framework of scenario-based approaches to assess changes in soil ES (SES) and soil threats (ST). As a part of the project SERENA funded by the European Joint Program on Agricultural Soil Management, this study aims to: i) understand how drivers of global change are commonly studied in the scientific literature; ii) identify how some SES and ST are assessed in scenario-based approaches; iii) provide a preliminary discussion on how soil properties are represented in these approaches. Through a systematic review of 230 published articles related to seven SES and ten ST, this study highlights that not all SES and ST are considered with the same frequency and geographic distribution in scenario-based approaches. Despite a great methodological variability in the assessment and mapping of SES and ST, dominant methodological trends can be identified. SES are mapped more frequently than ST and, specific SES appear more disposed to spatially explicit assessments than others. Due to its novelty and complexity, research on this topic is limited to a small subset of ST or SES and projections of the combined impacts of climate, land use and management changes on multiple ST and SES should be a scientific priority to help policy makers.