贝弗里奇曲线告诉我们软着陆的可能性是什么？

IF 1.9 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104957

Andrew Figura, Chris Waller

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引用次数: 0

摘要

对劳动力市场软着陆的可能性和特征的任何评估都应考虑到劳动力市场的现状以及未来劳动力市场可能出现的动态。以贝弗里奇曲线为中心的现代劳动力市场模型是进行这一评估的有用工具。我们使用贝弗里奇曲线的一个简单模型来研究劳动力市场软着陆的必要条件，以及这些条件在大流行时期通货膨胀高峰期出现的可能性。我们发现，软着陆在当时是一种可能的结果。从那以后，劳动力市场的演变证实了这一预测。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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What does the beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of soft landings?

Any assessment of the likelihood and characteristics of a soft landing in the labor market should take into account the current state of the labor market and the likely dynamics in the labor market going forward. Modern labor market models centered around the Beveridge curve are a useful tool in this assessment. We use a simple model of the Beveridge curve to investigate what conditions are necessary for a soft landing in the labor market to occur and what the likelihood of these conditions was during the height of the pandemic-period inflation. We find that a soft landing was a plausible outcome at that time. Since then, the evolution of the labor market has borne out that prediction.

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

10.50%

发文量

199

期刊介绍： The journal provides an outlet for publication of research concerning all theoretical and empirical aspects of economic dynamics and control as well as the development and use of computational methods in economics and finance. Contributions regarding computational methods may include, but are not restricted to, artificial intelligence, databases, decision support systems, genetic algorithms, modelling languages, neural networks, numerical algorithms for optimization, control and equilibria, parallel computing and qualitative reasoning.