堕胎投票措施会影响选举结果

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112182

Graham Gardner , Kayleigh McCrary , Melissa K. Spencer

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在2022年美国中期选举中，民主党候选人失去的席位少于预期，阻碍了预期的红色浪潮。新闻报道和民意调查数据表明，选民对最高法院推翻罗伊诉韦德案的反应，导致了民主党的意外成功。利用县级投票数据，我们发现2022年共和党选票优势的下降可以用人口和经济因素来解释。然而，与全国平均水平相比，在与堕胎有关的投票措施的州，共和党的选票优势下降了4.8个百分点。我们的研究结果表明，堕胎投票措施对选举结果的影响之大足以决定竞争的种族。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Abortion ballot measures affect election outcomes

In the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Democratic candidates lost fewer than predicted seats and stymied an expected red wave. News coverage and polling data represent this surprise Democratic success as a result of voters’ response to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. Using county-level vote data, we find that the decrease in Republican vote margin in 2022 can be explained by demographic and economic factors. However, relative to the national average, the Republican vote margin decreased by 4.8 percentage points more in states with abortion-related ballot measures. Our results indicate that abortion ballot measures have effects on election outcomes of a magnitude large enough to determine competitive races.

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来源期刊

Economics Letters ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.00%

发文量

348

审稿时长

30 days

期刊介绍： Many economists today are concerned by the proliferation of journals and the concomitant labyrinth of research to be conquered in order to reach the specific information they require. To combat this tendency, Economics Letters has been conceived and designed outside the realm of the traditional economics journal. As a Letters Journal, it consists of concise communications (letters) that provide a means of rapid and efficient dissemination of new results, models and methods in all fields of economic research.