参数不确定性对P91钢蠕变行为复杂性的影响

IF 3 2区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL

International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI:10.1016/j.ijpvp.2025.105436

Siyu Ren , Xinbao Liu , Lin Zhu , Ping Fan , Chaolu Song , Kai Zhang , Jie Chen , Hongtao Chen

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引用次数: 0

摘要

利用WCS模型和概率论，对P91耐热钢蠕变断裂时间进行了可靠的预测。首先，利用P91钢蠕变试验数据对WCS模型参数进行了标定，确定了WCS模型参数的概率分布函数（pdf）；然后，利用metrois - hastings （MH）算法，利用Markov Chain Monte Carlo （MCMC）方法对pdf进行校正，将不确定性源纳入模型。采用概率WCS模型分别预测了P91钢的短期和长期蠕变断裂次数。结果表明，由于复杂的不确定性，概率模型的提出提供了一个有效的工具来预测长期蠕变破裂时间的界限，特别是对钢。

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Influence of parameter uncertainty upon complexity of creep behavior of P91 steel

With the Wilshire-Cano-Stewart (WCS) model and probability theory, this study dealt with the reliable prediction of creep rupture time for P91 heat-resistant steel. Firstly, the WCS model parameters were calibrated using creep test data of P91 steel, and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of which were determined. Then, the sources of uncertainties were incorporated into the model through calibrated the PDFs by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. Consequently, the short-term and long-term creep rupture times of P91 steel were predicted using the probabilistic WCS model, respectively. The obtained results suggested that due to the complex uncertainties, the proposition of the probabilistic model offers an effective tool to predict the bounds of long-term creep rupture time for steels in particular.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 工程技术-工程：机械

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

13.30%

发文量

208

审稿时长

17 months

期刊介绍： Pressure vessel engineering technology is of importance in many branches of industry. This journal publishes the latest research results and related information on all its associated aspects, with particular emphasis on the structural integrity assessment, maintenance and life extension of pressurised process engineering plants. The anticipated coverage of the International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping ranges from simple mass-produced pressure vessels to large custom-built vessels and tanks. Pressure vessels technology is a developing field, and contributions on the following topics will therefore be welcome: • Pressure vessel engineering • Structural integrity assessment • Design methods • Codes and standards • Fabrication and welding • Materials properties requirements • Inspection and quality management • Maintenance and life extension • Ageing and environmental effects • Life management Of particular importance are papers covering aspects of significant practical application which could lead to major improvements in economy, reliability and useful life. While most accepted papers represent the results of original applied research, critical reviews of topical interest by world-leading experts will also appear from time to time. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping is indispensable reading for engineering professionals involved in the energy, petrochemicals, process plant, transport, aerospace and related industries; for manufacturers of pressure vessels and ancillary equipment; and for academics pursuing research in these areas.