Sustaining rural water infrastructure in Mbala, Zambia: A modelling approach for community-based management

Enhancing the sustainability of rural water supply infrastructure is essential for improving socioeconomic conditions and fostering sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa. This study employs a modelling approach to address critical gaps in the current understanding of the sustainability of rural water systems by investigating how community engagement, financial mechanisms, and technical interventions interact within Mbala, Zambia. Results demonstrate that community participation and not perception, significantly influences the functionality of water access points (WAPs), with community contributions predicting a sustainability probability of 0.63 (p = 0.0102), indicating a significantly positive effect on sustainability. Interestingly, contrary to conventional expectations that government involvement would play a significant role in sustaining WAPs, the modelling results reveal that it has no significant impact. In fact, government involvement is associated with the lowest predicted probability of sustainability (0.23, p-value > 0.5), a striking contrast to the strong positive effect of community contributions. These findings challenge the efficacy of top-down approaches, emphasizing the need for community-centered solutions. By bridging the gap between perception and actual contribution, this study offers novel insights that can inform sustainable rural water supply infrastructure management in Sub-Saharan Africa.