收入和价格变化如何影响电力需求?证据来自于 rkiye居民区

IF 2.2 Q1 Social Sciences
İsmail Kavaz
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究对1980年至2018年期间日本居民用电需求的收入和价格弹性进行了全面分析。采用结构时间序列建模方法,发现收入弹性的短期和长期因素分别为0.20和0.32,而相应的价格参数在短期和长期分别为- 0.08和- 0.14。这些弹性估计对于为政策制定过程提供信息至关重要,特别是在为斯里兰卡的住宅部门制定战略时。这些估计值的非弹性小于1,表明电力是 rkiye居民部门的必要商品。这意味着消费者对价格和收入波动的敏感度有限,表明这些因素的变化不会显著改变日本居民的电力需求。此外,本研究还提供了住宅用电需求的预测,从而扩展了其见解。预测表明,到2030年,预计 rkiye住宅部门的电力需求将在90至106太瓦时(TWh)之间。这些预测数据可作为未来住宅用电规划和政策制定的重要工具。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How income and price changes affect the electricity demand? Evidence from Türkiye’s residential sector
This study undertakes a comprehensive analysis of the income and price elasticities of residential electricity demand for Türkiye, spanning from 1980 to 2018. By employing the Structural Time Series Modelling method, the short- and long-run factors of income elasticities are found as 0.20 and 0.32, while the corresponding price parameters are determined as −0.08 for the short-term and −0.14 in the long-term, respectively. These elasticity estimations are crucial for informing policy-making processes, particularly in strategizing for the residential sector in Türkiye. The inelastic nature of these estimates, being less than 1, suggests that electricity constitutes a necessary commodity within the residential sector of Türkiye. It implies a limited sensitivity of consumers to fluctuations in price and income, indicating that changes in these factors do not significantly alter residential electricity demand in Türkiye. Additionally, this study extends its insights by providing forecasts for residential electricity demand. The projections indicate that by the year 2030, the electricity demand within Türkiye’s residential sector is projected to range between 90 and 106 Terawatt-hours (TWh). This forecasted data serves as an essential tool for future planning and policy development in the context of residential electricity consumption.
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来源期刊
Electricity Journal
Electricity Journal Business, Management and Accounting-Business and International Management
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
95
审稿时长
31 days
期刊介绍: The Electricity Journal is the leading journal in electric power policy. The journal deals primarily with fuel diversity and the energy mix needed for optimal energy market performance, and therefore covers the full spectrum of energy, from coal, nuclear, natural gas and oil, to renewable energy sources including hydro, solar, geothermal and wind power. Recently, the journal has been publishing in emerging areas including energy storage, microgrid strategies, dynamic pricing, cyber security, climate change, cap and trade, distributed generation, net metering, transmission and generation market dynamics. The Electricity Journal aims to bring together the most thoughtful and influential thinkers globally from across industry, practitioners, government, policymakers and academia. The Editorial Advisory Board is comprised of electric industry thought leaders who have served as regulators, consultants, litigators, and market advocates. Their collective experience helps ensure that the most relevant and thought-provoking issues are presented to our readers, and helps navigate the emerging shape and design of the electricity/energy industry.
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