自动化采用的动态:公司层面的异质性和总就业效应

IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Laura Bisio , Angelo Cuzzola , Marco Grazzi , Daniele Moschella
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们调查了2011-2019年意大利经济中自动化相关产品投资对采用和未采用自动化的公司的影响。我们整合了意大利进口企业人口的贸易活动、企业和工人特征的数据集,并在利用与自动化技术(包括机器人)相关的产品类别的进口不一致性的差异设计中,估计了对采用者结果的影响。我们发现平均采用对采用者的就业有积极的影响:在自动化高峰之后,公司的就业人数平均增加了3%左右。至关重要的是,就业效应在公司之间是不一样的:积极效应在小企业中占主导地位,它们在高峰后的五年内增长了5%左右;相反,在中型和大型企业中,负替代效应占主导地位,五年内就业萎缩约为- 4%。这一结果可以揭示先前研究中发现的混合结果背后的一个潜在原因,这些研究通常依赖于不同大小分布的样本。我们用一个5位数的行业级分析来完成这个框架,该分析表明,采用自动化技术对总就业有总体上微弱的负面影响,并分析了自动化的竞争效应,表明非采用者在销售和就业方面遭受损失。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The dynamics of automation adoption: Firm-level heterogeneity and aggregate employment effects
We investigate the impact of investment in automation-related goods on adopting and non-adopting firms in the Italian economy during 2011–2019. We integrate datasets on trade activities, firms’, and workers’ characteristics for the population of Italian importing firms and estimate the effects on adopters’ outcomes within a difference-in-differences design exploiting import lumpiness in product categories linked to automation technologies (including robots). We find a positive average adoption effect on the adopters’ employment: firms are, on average, around 3% larger in terms of employment after an automation spike. Crucially, the employment effect is heterogeneous across firms: a positive effect is predominant among small firms, which are around 5% larger five years after the spike; on the contrary, a negative displacement effect is predominant among medium and large firms, with an employment contraction at five years of around −4%. This result can shed light on one potential reason behind the mixed results found in previous studies, which often rely on samples with different size distributions. We complete the framework with a 5-digit sector-level analysis showing that adopting automation technologies has an overall weak negative effect on aggregate employment, and with an analysis of the competition effects of automation, showing that non-adopters suffer a loss in sales and employment.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
3.60%
发文量
170
期刊介绍: The European Economic Review (EER) started publishing in 1969 as the first research journal specifically aiming to contribute to the development and application of economics as a science in Europe. As a broad-based professional and international journal, the EER welcomes submissions of applied and theoretical research papers in all fields of economics. The aim of the EER is to contribute to the development of the science of economics and its applications, as well as to improve communication between academic researchers, teachers and policy makers across the European continent and beyond.
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