基于模型的生态方案溢价对巴登-符腾堡州短轮作森林气候保护潜力影响分析

Cecilia Roxanne Geier , Elisabeth Angenendt , Enno Bahrs , Jan Weik , Christian Sponagel
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引用次数: 0

摘要

共同农业政策(CAP)及其直接支付是实现欧洲为农业设定的气候目标的重要工具。在这方面,促进农林业有助于将其作为减少温室气体的措施加以应用,例如通过固碳和用柴火替代化石燃料。然而,由于这是共同农业政策中的一项新措施,其对气候缓解目标的贡献以及当前生态计划下的地区支付的成本效益尚不清楚。本研究调查了CAP 2023中生态计划保费的成本效益,重点研究了它们通过巴登- 符腾堡州(BW)的短轮作Coppice (SRC)加强气候保护的潜力。我们使用地理空间经济土地利用模型和生命周期评估来评估不同溢价水平对温室气体排放的影响。我们的研究结果表明,将保费提高到400欧元公顷- 1年- 1,可以抵消目前农业温室气体排放量的1.5%。然而,由于经济因素和缓解潜力等投入的不确定性,这种影响确实在0.1%至8%之间变化。由此产生的每吨二氧化碳减排费用从70欧元到454欧元不等,平均为140欧元。这些结果表明,较高的生态方案保费可以有效地促进SRC作为气候减缓策略,但其成本效益变化很大。尽管我们的模型框架存在不确定性,这可能会影响这些评估,但我们的研究为生态方案溢价对气候保护的潜力提供了有价值的见解。尽管我们的研究结果是针对德国的,但它们为负责设计国家CAP战略和生态计划的欧盟政策制定者提供了相关指导。进一步的研究应进一步探索SRC的其他益处,如增强生物多样性和控制土壤侵蚀。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Model-based analysis of the impact of an eco-scheme premium on the climate protection potential of short rotation coppice in Baden-Württemberg
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and its direct payments constitute an important instrument for achieving the European climate target set for agriculture. In this context, the promotion of agroforestry can contribute to its application as a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction measure, for instance through carbon sequestration and fossil fuel substitution with fire wood. However, as this is a novel measure within the CAP, its contribution to climate mitigation objectives and the cost effectiveness of the current area payments under the eco-schemes are unclear. This study investigated the cost effectiveness of eco-scheme premiums within the CAP 2023, focusing on their potential to enhance climate protection through Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) in Baden-Württemberg (BW). We used a geospatial economic land use model with a life cycle assessment to evaluate the impact of varying premium levels on GHG emissions. Our findings suggested that increasing the premium to €400 ​ha−1 ​yr−1 could offset up to 1.5% of the current agricultural GHG emissions of BW. However, this effect did vary between 0.1% and 8% due to input uncertainties such as economic factors and mitigation potential. The resulting payments per ton of mitigated CO2eq ranged from €70 to €454, averaging €140. These results indicated that higher eco-scheme premiums could effectively promote SRC as a climate mitigation strategy, but their cost effectiveness is highly variable. Despite uncertainties in our model framework, which may influence these evaluations, our study provided valuable insights into the potential of eco-scheme premiums for climate protection. Although our findings were specific to Germany, they offer relevant guidance for EU policymakers responsible for designing national CAP strategies and eco-schemes. Further research should explore the additional benefits of SRC, such as biodiversity enhancement and soil erosion control.
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