1999年至2010年间，厄尔Niño南方涛动与阿拉斯加海鸟蛋中遗留污染物水平之间的关系建模

IF 9 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.enceco.2024.11.004

Caitlin A. McConaghy , Vrinda Kalia , Amina Salamova , Lance A. Waller , Matthew O. Gribble

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引用次数: 0

摘要

北极圈北部长期以来一直是遗留的持久性有机污染物（POPs）的汇。在气候变暖的情况下，预计这些污染物会在受气候过程影响的环境介质中重新流动，强调有必要研究大规模气候波动对遗留持久性有机污染物命运的影响。方法采用非参数自适应分段对数线性样条回归模型来测量El Niño南方涛动（ENSO）与多氯联苯（PCBs）、有机氯农药（ocp）、以及在1999年至2010年期间从阿拉斯加湾和白令海采集的普通海雀（Uria alge）和厚嘴海雀（Uria lomvia）卵中检测到的多溴联苯醚（PBDEs）。结果在ENSO暖期，厚喙murres的平均PCB浓度每单位ONI增加143%，meta-回归合并估计为0.887 （95% CI: 0.674, 1.099）。同样，在温暖期，ONI每增加一个单位，平均PBDE浓度增加562%，汇总估计为1.890 （95% CI: 0.647, 3.133）。在低温期，每增加1单位ONI，平均PCB浓度下降59%，汇总估计为- 0.892 （95% CI: - 1.400, - 0.384）。在普通海域，在暖期，每单位ONI增加，PCB浓度平均下降51.4%，meta-回归汇总估计为- 0.722 (95% CI: - 0.894, - 0.549)，在冷期，每单位ONI增加，PCB浓度平均增加39.5%，汇总估计为0.333 （95% CI: 0.185, 0.481）。在温暖期，ONI每增加一个单位，PBDE的平均浓度下降79.2%，汇总估计为- 1.572 （95% CI: - 2.357, - 0.787）。我们的研究结果表明，ENSO与阿拉斯加murre蛋中PCB和PBDE的负荷之间存在关联，表明ENSO可能是阿拉斯加海洋食物网中遗留持久性有机污染物命运的重要因素。据我们所知，这是第一篇将ENSO与阿拉斯加环境中遗留持久性有机污染物水平联系起来的论文，可能与该地区的健康和粮食安全有关。

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Modelling the association between the El Niño Southern Oscillation and levels of legacy pollutants in Alaskan seabird eggs from 1999 to 2010

Background

The circumpolar north has long been a sink for legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Under a warmer climate, these contaminants are predicted to remobilize within environmental media where they are subject to climate processes, underscoring the need to examine the effects of large-scale climate oscillations on the fate of legacy POPs.

Methods

We apply piecewise log-linear spline regression models with non-parametric bootstrapping to measure the association between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a measure of Pacific sea surface temperature variability, and levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) measured in common murre (Uria aalge) and thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) eggs collected from the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea between 1999 and 2010.

Results

In thick-billed murres, average PCB concentrations increased 143 % per unit increase in ONI during the warm phase of the ENSO, with a meta-regression pooled estimate of 0.887 (95 % CI: 0.674, 1.099). Similarly, average PBDE concentrations increased 562 % per unit increase in ONI during the warm phase, with a pooled estimate of 1.890 (95 % CI: 0.647, 3.133). During the cool phase, average PCB concentrations decreased 59 % per unit increase in ONI, with a pooled estimate of −0.892 (95 % CI: −1.400, −0.384). In common murres, average PCB concentrations decreased 51.4 % per unit increase in ONI during the warm phase, with a meta-regression pooled estimate of −0.722 (95 % CI: −0.894, −0.549), and increased 39.5 % per unit increase in ONI during the cool phase, with a pooled estimate of 0.333 (95 % CI: 0.185, 0.481). Average PBDE concentrations decreased 79.2 % per unit increase in ONI during the warm phase, with a pooled estimate of −1.572 (95 % CI: −2.357, −0.787).

Conclusion

Our results indicate associations between the ENSO and PCB and PBDE loads in Alaskan murre eggs, suggesting the ENSO may be an important factor in the fate of legacy POPs within Alaskan marine food webs. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to link the ENSO and levels of legacy POPs in Alaska's environment and may be relevant to health and food security in this region.

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来源期刊

Environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology

CiteScore

15.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量