To milk, or not to milk? Exploring just and sustainable transition pathways for Aotearoa New Zealand's dairy sector

Aotearoa New Zealand's dairy industry is grappling with significant socio-ecological challenges due to increased intensification of production and global demand for its high-quality milk powder. Mounting social, environmental, political, and economic pressures, along with the urgency of addressing climate change impacts, bring attention to the need for policymakers to plan for just and sustainable transitions. This paper draws on the concept of transition pathways from the sustainability transitions literature and concepts of non-human, ecological and cosmopolitan justice from the just food transitions literature, to explore possible futures for the sector. The findings are informed by 60 interviews with key stakeholders across Aotearoa's dairy ecosystem as well as field walks on dairy farms. Three transition pathways were identified: de-intensification, diversification and the development of dairy alternatives (plant-based and precision fermentation). Each is accompanied by a range of justice issues that we discuss in depth. While the applicability of these pathways will vary across contexts, they nonetheless establish a foundational framework for pursuing just and sustainable transitions within Aotearoa's dairy sector.