Inequality of opportunities, institutional distrust, and beliefs about socio-economic outcomes in the Western Balkans

This paper explores how inequality of opportunities (IOp) and institutional distrust shape beliefs about social and economic outcomes in the Western Balkans. Drawing on data from the Public Opinion Survey (2017–2021) conducted by the Regional Cooperation Council, we apply a robust multivariate regression framework to assess both the direct and interaction effects of these factors. Our findings demonstrate that higher levels of IOp are strongly associated with perceptions of social and economic unfairness, while institutional distrust amplifies these perceptions, revealing a dynamic interplay between socio-economic disparities and public confidence in institutions. The study highlights the critical need for targeted policy measures to mitigate IOp and rebuild institutional trust, which could fundamentally reshape public beliefs and foster equitable growth. Policymakers are urged to prioritise reducing socio-economic disparities and enhancing institutional transparency and accountability to promote trust and sustainable development in the region.