Decoupling of surface water storage from precipitation in global drylands due to anthropogenic activity

The availability of surface water in global drylands is essential for both human society and ecosystems. However, the long-term drivers of change in surface water storage, particularly those related to anthropogenic activities, remain unclear. Here we use multi-mission remote sensing data to construct monthly time series of water storage changes from 1985 to 2020 for 105,400 lakes and reservoirs in global drylands. An increase of 2.20 km3 per year in surface water storage is found primarily due to the construction of new reservoirs. For lakes and old reservoirs (constructed before 1983), conversely, the trend in storage is minor when aggregated globally, but they dominate surface water storage trends in 91% of individual global dryland basins. Further analysis reveals that long-term storage changes in these water bodies are primarily linked to anthropogenic factors—including human-induced warming and water-management practices—rather than to precipitation changes, as previously thought. These findings reveal a decoupling of surface water storage from precipitation in global drylands, raising concerns about societal and ecosystem sustainability. This study quantifies and attributes the changes of surface water storage in global dryland basins over 1985–2020, indicating that long-term changes are mainly linked to anthropogenic factors rather than precipitation.