南亚:编辑概述

IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Hal Hill, Takatoshi Ito, Kazumasa Iwata, Colin McKenzie, Shujiro Urata
{"title":"南亚:编辑概述","authors":"Hal Hill,&nbsp;Takatoshi Ito,&nbsp;Kazumasa Iwata,&nbsp;Colin McKenzie,&nbsp;Shujiro Urata","doi":"10.1111/aepr.12499","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This special issue of the <i>Asian Economic Policy Review</i> examines the economic development of four economies of South Asia,<sup>1</sup> Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Over the past 38 issues of the journal, we have had 2 issues devoted to India (Vol. 3, No. 2 and Vol. 14, No. 1), but not even 1 paper focused solely on Bangladesh, Pakistan, or Sri Lanka. This issue of the <i>Asian Economic Policy Review</i> attempts to fill that gap.</p><p>South Asia is the world's most populous region, comprising 21% of the world's population. However, poverty is widespread and the economies are relatively small in global terms: they generate 5.2% of global output, indicating that their average per capita income is about one-quarter of the global figure.<sup>2</sup></p><p>Although Bangladesh and Pakistan have very large populations (173 million and 240 million, respectively), India, the world's most populous nation with 1,429 million people, dominates South Asia's economy, politics, and demographics. India is now the world's fifth largest economy measured at official exchange rates and the third largest as measured by purchasing power parity exchange rates.</p><p>Since independence in the late 1940s (1947 for India and Pakistan, 1948 for Sri Lanka),<sup>3</sup> the region has experienced mixed economic fortunes. Kathuria (<span>2025</span>) characterizes the early post-independence period as one of “wasted decades.” Over the long sweep of economic development, from 1950 to 2016 real global per capita income in international prices increased 4.4 times. The increases in India (4.3 times) and Pakistan (4.4) were very similar to the global average. Sri Lanka grew faster (7.6), while Bangladesh was slower (2.9).<sup>4</sup> As van der Eng (<span>2025</span>, figure 1) shows, at the time of its independence Sri Lanka had the region's highest per capita income by a substantial margin, followed by Bangladesh, Pakistan and India. Until its recent macroeconomic crisis, Sri Lanka continued to be the most prosperous country, but India has overtaken both Bangladesh and Pakistan. Pakistan is now the poorest of the four, again by a substantial margin.</p><p>Sri Lanka is also the region's leader as measured by social indicators. In 2021, its human development index was 0.78, much higher than India (0.63), Bangladesh (0.66), and Pakistan's very low 0.54. Sri Lanka is the leader, and Pakistan the laggard, with respect to various indicators, including education, health, poverty, and gender equity. Moreover, notwithstanding the region's egalitarian rhetoric, poverty has also generally been less responsive to economic growth than it has in Northeast and Southeast Asia (hereafter referred to as East Asia). South Asia has yet to experience the rapid, labor-intensive, export-oriented industrialization that has had transformational labor market effects in much of East Asia. One important factor is the relatively low labor force participation rates, exceptionally so for females (World Bank, <span>2024</span>; Kathuria, <span>2025</span>). Consistent with the process of economic development, as incomes rise agriculture is shedding labor. However, the nonagricultural sectors are not providing good jobs in sufficient numbers, in turn limiting the opportunities that arise through the demographic dividend.</p><p>These development outcomes are explained by the countries' initial conditions and economic and social policies adopted since independence. The countries' colonial origins resonated for decades after independence. Given the countries' British colonial background, the region's educated elites typically studied in the United Kingdom with London and Oxbridge being favored destinations, where they were attracted to Fabian socialism, a factor contributing to the post-colonial adoption of inward-looking development strategies. The influence of the Bank of England was also felt, initially with currency board arrangements and subsequently with monetary prudence. The early leaders spoke the same language, literally and figuratively, which makes the regional disharmony of the independence era all the more difficult to understand.</p><p>Three of the countries had traumatic beginnings owing to the 1947 partition. Bangladesh, formerly East Pakistan, fought a costly war of independence. Viewed from the 2020s, and to oversimplify greatly, the countries that are now experiencing the most serious economic and political challenges were initially expected to perform well, while the converse is also true. Sri Lanka was regarded as the “model colony,” to employ Lee Kuan Yew's envious characterization, and it appeared to possess all the preconditions for rapid economic development—excellent human capital indicators (including low gender disparities), a functioning political system, a well-established administrative apparatus, and a pivotal geographic location. Pakistan also appeared to have good prospects, with a dynamic entrepreneurial class and close relations with the USA. By contrast, there was much pessimism about prospects in India and later Bangladesh: India turned inward, its economy was administered by the famous “license raj,” and its development trajectory was characterized as the “Hindu equilibrium” of 3.5% economic growth, that is, 2.5% population growth and 1% per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. War-ravaged Bangladesh was widely regarded as a basket case in the 1970s, with little prospect of economic development.</p><p>That these early expectations were not realized owes much to subsequent political and economic developments, as the contributors to this volume explain. After disengaging systematically from the global economy in the late 1960s and early 1970s, Athukorala (<span>2025</span>) highlights that Sri Lanka was actually the first country in the region to liberalize its trade and investment regime, in 1977. Although the liberalization was incomplete, it had immediate results and led to accelerated export and economic growth. However, the reforms were overtaken by a prolonged and increasingly vicious ethnic-based civil war from 1983 to 2009. The subsequent recovery was further nipped in the bud by spiraling corruption and fiscal adventurism during the Rajapaksa years. It was finally the COVID pandemic and rising global interest rates that precipitated the country's most serious macroeconomic crisis in its independent history, commencing in 2021 and continuing to the present.</p><p>Panagariya (<span>2025</span>) shows that India finally began to discard the shackles of the license raj in the 1980s, as economic growth began to accelerate, driven by partial reforms and expanded borrowings. However, this debt-driven strategy precipitated a fiscal and debt crisis in 1991, triggered in part by rising oil prices in the wake of the First Gulf War. Consistent with the crisis-reform hypothesis, the government responded by embarking on a series of major liberalizing reforms which, with a lag, resulted in historically rapid economic growth. Panagariya (<span>2025</span>) stresses that these and subsequent reforms have basically enjoyed bi-partisan support ever since, and have set the stage for the country becoming a global economic superpower.</p><p>Moreover, as Ray and Mohan (<span>2025</span>) document, since May 2016 India has adopted a “flexible inflation targeting” (FIT) regime whereby the central government sets the inflation target and its bounds. Ray and Mohan's evaluation of FIT is that average inflation rates observed during the 1995–1996 to 2007–2008 period are quite comparable with those during the FIT years (from 2016 to the present) with the period 2008–2009 to 2012–2013 being viewed as an aberration in India's inflation history. In addition to monetary policy, Ray and Mohan also examine the health of Indian's banking sector and advances in digital payments infrastructure. The health of Indian's banking system has improved significantly after 2017 as a result of legislation to simplify and accelerate bankruptcy procedures, a strengthening of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) surveillance procedures, and government efforts to recapitalize the banks. The establishment of the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) that allows merchant payments with Single Application or In-App Payments, as well as different utility bill payments and QR Code (Scan and Pay) based payments, is viewed as a game changer.</p><p>Bangladesh is the unexpected success story in South Asia. At the time of independence, it was one of the poorest countries in the world. It appeared to have little prospect of economic development, a judgment confirmed by its first two, turbulent decades. However, the more settled political environment from the 1990s created economic opportunities. Principal among these, as described by Ginting <i>et al</i>. (<span>2025</span>), has been its spectacular success as one of the world's leading garment exporters. The growth has been driven by three main factors: an initial exploratory investment from Korea which quickly had spillover effects; pro-active government policies that facilitated the industry's expansion; and concessional export market access in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) markets. This rapid, labor-intensive export expansion has had transformational labor market impacts. Combined with two successful and influential nongovernmental organization's (NGO), the Grameen Bank and BRAC, garment exports have been the primary driver of the country's fastest improvement in human development indicators in South Asia this century. However, Ginting <i>et al</i>. (<span>2025</span>) also stress the limits to this growth path, including its narrow export base, very limited technological upgrading and spillover to other sectors, and the likelihood that the privileged export market access arrangements will soon expire.</p><p>Pakistan's development record is a history of missed opportunities, as documented by van der Eng (<span>2025</span>). Once a leader among the large South Asian economies, in the decade from 2010 it was overtaken first by India and then by Bangladesh. Notwithstanding the difficult external environment, including the prolonged conflict in Afghanistan, regional religious tensions, environmental catastrophes, and the standoff with India, its problems are essentially home-grown. Its politics has been dominated by a narrow clique drawn from the military, a dynastic political class, and a small business elite. Unable to finance even the most basic economic and social needs, successive governments have resorted to external finance but without the capacity to create debt-service capacities. The result has been a series of revolving-door International Monetary Fund (IMF) rescue packages. It is perhaps no exaggeration to regard it as a “semi-failed state” (The Economist, <span>2024</span>), moreover one that is nuclear-armed and not at peace with three of the four states with which it shares a land border.</p><p>Standing back, three differences with the development trajectories in East Asia are evident. First, the turning points involving the adoption of outward-looking economic development and accelerated economic development, such as China in 1978, Indonesia in 1966, Vietnam in 1986, are not clearly evident. The closest examples are India in 1991, Sri Lanka in 1977, and Bangladesh in the 1990s. But even in these cases, and notwithstanding the clear reform dividends in all three, there continues to be a pronounced ambivalence toward globalization (Kathuria, <span>2025</span>). Second, the vast, dynamic global production networks that have integrated the economies of East Asia, and in turn linked them to global markets, have barely taken root in South Asia, in spite of its shared colonial heritage and language. At the most mundane level, there are barriers to the movement of people within South Asia. Only tourism-dependent Nepal and Sri Lanka have had relatively open regional and international borders to the movement of people.</p><p>Third, regional integration initiatives are minimal (Kathuria, <span>2025</span>). The South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA), which took effect in 2006, is clearly a misnomer, as are the various extra-regional bilateral agreements that countries have signed. Each country maintains extensive lists of sensitive and excluded items, and their trade regimes are becoming more restrictive. The countries also generally eschew mega-regional trade agreements. A notable example is India's decision to withdraw from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership negotiations, and its periodic rice and other export bans. As has been the case in East Asia, unilateral liberalization will always be the most effective trade reform strategy, but it would in turn increase regional economic integration owing to geographic proximity and cultural familiarity, an example of open regionalism.</p><p>South Asia's institutional development has also tended to lag. Admittedly, forms of democracy have taken root in the region, arguably more so than in any other major developing region. All four countries are classified by Freedom House (<span>2023a</span>,<span>b</span>,<span>c</span>,<span>d</span>) as “partly free,” as they have been for most of their independent histories, with scores (ranging from 0 to 100 for least to most democratic) of 66 for India, 54 for Sri Lanka, 40 for Bangladesh, and 37 for Pakistan. However, as Subramanian (<span>2025</span>) observed in his commentary on Kathuria (<span>2025</span>), “majoritarian” political cultures are evident, with challenging implications for ethnic and religious harmony, and also for the business environments. In fact, most international rankings suggest a mixed picture. For example, the countries' rankings on Transparency International's (<span>2024</span>) corruption perception index are broadly similar to, or below, their per capita income rankings. Of the 180 countries for which estimates are provided for 2023, the country rankings range from India at 93 to Bangladesh at 149; Pakistan (133) and Sri Lanka (115) occupy intermediate positions.</p><p>What of the future? Political, economic, and environmental uncertainties abound, especially if, as suggested by some IMF economists, the global economy is entering a period of “high-debt low-growth” (Adrian <i>et al</i>., <span>2024</span>). In such a scenario, one can be reasonably confident about continued economic growth only in India. Notwithstanding the many caveats about that country's growth projections, including looming environmental threats, its alleged democratic regression, and distributional outcomes, its political and business environment appear to be settled, its macroeconomic house is in order (even with its high public debt), its huge domestic market is well placed to navigate external shocks, and the country's has unparalleled economic and diplomatic heft, particularly in a polarized world.</p><p>For the two debt-crisis economies, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, the immediate challenge is to restore macroeconomic stability, implement their debt negotiation programs, and return to growth. There is ample evidence in international debt crisis experiences that recovery is feasible, for example, as occurred in the aftermath of the 1997–1998 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC). In both Pakistan and Sri Lanka, however, the path to recovery is complicated by polarized political communities, the difficulty of forging a negotiated consensus among international creditors (particularly but not only with China), and economies with over-sized non-tradable sectors that increase the effective debt-service burden. The longer the recovery is delayed, the more difficult will the problems become, exacerbated by the exodus of human capital already evident, and the propensity for renewed political conflict. In early 2024, the obstacles look particularly serious in Pakistan.</p><p>Bangladesh's future depends critically on whether the reforms advocated by Ginting <i>et al</i>. (<span>2025</span>) can be implemented. The country's great advantage is that its recent history has clearly indicated that it can grow fast and reduce poverty quickly. Although it has signed a precautionary agreement with the IMF, its macroeconomic fundamentals are basically sound. It has the capacity to follow the East Asian “flying geese” model by diversifying into a wider range of manufactures. There are no insuperable technical barriers for adopting such a strategy, even in the more crowded and competitive international market place. Given its polarized politics, the country is at the crossroads: it is now up to the country's political, business, and bureaucratic elite to decide which path to take.</p><p>It needs to be noted also that the papers in this issue were written for a March 2024 conference and revised for publication shortly thereafter. Since then, there have been important political developments in Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka which, especially in the case of Bangladesh, may affect the region's development outlook.</p><p>Bangladesh's long-serving prime minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted on August 5 and she immediately went into exile following weeks of popular and increasingly violent protests, the result of her deeply unpopular and authoritarian leadership, and the rigged national elections of January 7. An interim government headed by the respected Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus has been installed to rebuild institutions and to chart a return to democratic government. The political unrest has had adverse economic consequences. At the time of writing, it is unclear whether, and how quickly, Bangladesh's economy will recover, and whether it portends major changes in the country's development strategy.</p><p>Sri Lanka had a presidential election on September 21 that resulted in a decisive leftward shift in its politics. The successful candidate, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, then dissolved the parliament and called for new elections, which his party won with an overwhelming majority. Unlike in Bangladesh earlier in the year, both the presidential and parliamentary elections were legitimate and the results uncontested (a not insignificant achievement given the country's deep economic and political crises). But here too it is unclear whether the new government will fundamentally change economic policies. An immediate challenge concerns the ongoing debt negotiations with the IMF and its creditors.</p><p>The Indian elections held during the months of April, May, and June, which were also conducted fairly, resulted in Prime Minister Modi losing his parliamentary majority and for the first time being forced into a coalition with some minor parties. Although PM Modi's political authority has been somewhat diminished, it appears unlikely that there will be any fundamental changes in Indian economic policy.</p><p>This section summarizes the papers presented at the 39th Asian Economic Policy Review Conference held online on March 22, 2024, the comments by the assigned discussants, and the general discussion of each paper. The appendix contains list of conference participants.</p>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"20 1","pages":"2-26"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/aepr.12499","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"South Asia: Editors' Overview\",\"authors\":\"Hal Hill,&nbsp;Takatoshi Ito,&nbsp;Kazumasa Iwata,&nbsp;Colin McKenzie,&nbsp;Shujiro Urata\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/aepr.12499\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>This special issue of the <i>Asian Economic Policy Review</i> examines the economic development of four economies of South Asia,<sup>1</sup> Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Over the past 38 issues of the journal, we have had 2 issues devoted to India (Vol. 3, No. 2 and Vol. 14, No. 1), but not even 1 paper focused solely on Bangladesh, Pakistan, or Sri Lanka. This issue of the <i>Asian Economic Policy Review</i> attempts to fill that gap.</p><p>South Asia is the world's most populous region, comprising 21% of the world's population. However, poverty is widespread and the economies are relatively small in global terms: they generate 5.2% of global output, indicating that their average per capita income is about one-quarter of the global figure.<sup>2</sup></p><p>Although Bangladesh and Pakistan have very large populations (173 million and 240 million, respectively), India, the world's most populous nation with 1,429 million people, dominates South Asia's economy, politics, and demographics. India is now the world's fifth largest economy measured at official exchange rates and the third largest as measured by purchasing power parity exchange rates.</p><p>Since independence in the late 1940s (1947 for India and Pakistan, 1948 for Sri Lanka),<sup>3</sup> the region has experienced mixed economic fortunes. Kathuria (<span>2025</span>) characterizes the early post-independence period as one of “wasted decades.” Over the long sweep of economic development, from 1950 to 2016 real global per capita income in international prices increased 4.4 times. The increases in India (4.3 times) and Pakistan (4.4) were very similar to the global average. Sri Lanka grew faster (7.6), while Bangladesh was slower (2.9).<sup>4</sup> As van der Eng (<span>2025</span>, figure 1) shows, at the time of its independence Sri Lanka had the region's highest per capita income by a substantial margin, followed by Bangladesh, Pakistan and India. Until its recent macroeconomic crisis, Sri Lanka continued to be the most prosperous country, but India has overtaken both Bangladesh and Pakistan. Pakistan is now the poorest of the four, again by a substantial margin.</p><p>Sri Lanka is also the region's leader as measured by social indicators. In 2021, its human development index was 0.78, much higher than India (0.63), Bangladesh (0.66), and Pakistan's very low 0.54. Sri Lanka is the leader, and Pakistan the laggard, with respect to various indicators, including education, health, poverty, and gender equity. Moreover, notwithstanding the region's egalitarian rhetoric, poverty has also generally been less responsive to economic growth than it has in Northeast and Southeast Asia (hereafter referred to as East Asia). South Asia has yet to experience the rapid, labor-intensive, export-oriented industrialization that has had transformational labor market effects in much of East Asia. One important factor is the relatively low labor force participation rates, exceptionally so for females (World Bank, <span>2024</span>; Kathuria, <span>2025</span>). Consistent with the process of economic development, as incomes rise agriculture is shedding labor. However, the nonagricultural sectors are not providing good jobs in sufficient numbers, in turn limiting the opportunities that arise through the demographic dividend.</p><p>These development outcomes are explained by the countries' initial conditions and economic and social policies adopted since independence. The countries' colonial origins resonated for decades after independence. Given the countries' British colonial background, the region's educated elites typically studied in the United Kingdom with London and Oxbridge being favored destinations, where they were attracted to Fabian socialism, a factor contributing to the post-colonial adoption of inward-looking development strategies. The influence of the Bank of England was also felt, initially with currency board arrangements and subsequently with monetary prudence. The early leaders spoke the same language, literally and figuratively, which makes the regional disharmony of the independence era all the more difficult to understand.</p><p>Three of the countries had traumatic beginnings owing to the 1947 partition. Bangladesh, formerly East Pakistan, fought a costly war of independence. Viewed from the 2020s, and to oversimplify greatly, the countries that are now experiencing the most serious economic and political challenges were initially expected to perform well, while the converse is also true. Sri Lanka was regarded as the “model colony,” to employ Lee Kuan Yew's envious characterization, and it appeared to possess all the preconditions for rapid economic development—excellent human capital indicators (including low gender disparities), a functioning political system, a well-established administrative apparatus, and a pivotal geographic location. Pakistan also appeared to have good prospects, with a dynamic entrepreneurial class and close relations with the USA. By contrast, there was much pessimism about prospects in India and later Bangladesh: India turned inward, its economy was administered by the famous “license raj,” and its development trajectory was characterized as the “Hindu equilibrium” of 3.5% economic growth, that is, 2.5% population growth and 1% per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. War-ravaged Bangladesh was widely regarded as a basket case in the 1970s, with little prospect of economic development.</p><p>That these early expectations were not realized owes much to subsequent political and economic developments, as the contributors to this volume explain. After disengaging systematically from the global economy in the late 1960s and early 1970s, Athukorala (<span>2025</span>) highlights that Sri Lanka was actually the first country in the region to liberalize its trade and investment regime, in 1977. Although the liberalization was incomplete, it had immediate results and led to accelerated export and economic growth. However, the reforms were overtaken by a prolonged and increasingly vicious ethnic-based civil war from 1983 to 2009. The subsequent recovery was further nipped in the bud by spiraling corruption and fiscal adventurism during the Rajapaksa years. It was finally the COVID pandemic and rising global interest rates that precipitated the country's most serious macroeconomic crisis in its independent history, commencing in 2021 and continuing to the present.</p><p>Panagariya (<span>2025</span>) shows that India finally began to discard the shackles of the license raj in the 1980s, as economic growth began to accelerate, driven by partial reforms and expanded borrowings. However, this debt-driven strategy precipitated a fiscal and debt crisis in 1991, triggered in part by rising oil prices in the wake of the First Gulf War. Consistent with the crisis-reform hypothesis, the government responded by embarking on a series of major liberalizing reforms which, with a lag, resulted in historically rapid economic growth. Panagariya (<span>2025</span>) stresses that these and subsequent reforms have basically enjoyed bi-partisan support ever since, and have set the stage for the country becoming a global economic superpower.</p><p>Moreover, as Ray and Mohan (<span>2025</span>) document, since May 2016 India has adopted a “flexible inflation targeting” (FIT) regime whereby the central government sets the inflation target and its bounds. Ray and Mohan's evaluation of FIT is that average inflation rates observed during the 1995–1996 to 2007–2008 period are quite comparable with those during the FIT years (from 2016 to the present) with the period 2008–2009 to 2012–2013 being viewed as an aberration in India's inflation history. In addition to monetary policy, Ray and Mohan also examine the health of Indian's banking sector and advances in digital payments infrastructure. The health of Indian's banking system has improved significantly after 2017 as a result of legislation to simplify and accelerate bankruptcy procedures, a strengthening of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) surveillance procedures, and government efforts to recapitalize the banks. The establishment of the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) that allows merchant payments with Single Application or In-App Payments, as well as different utility bill payments and QR Code (Scan and Pay) based payments, is viewed as a game changer.</p><p>Bangladesh is the unexpected success story in South Asia. At the time of independence, it was one of the poorest countries in the world. It appeared to have little prospect of economic development, a judgment confirmed by its first two, turbulent decades. However, the more settled political environment from the 1990s created economic opportunities. Principal among these, as described by Ginting <i>et al</i>. (<span>2025</span>), has been its spectacular success as one of the world's leading garment exporters. The growth has been driven by three main factors: an initial exploratory investment from Korea which quickly had spillover effects; pro-active government policies that facilitated the industry's expansion; and concessional export market access in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) markets. This rapid, labor-intensive export expansion has had transformational labor market impacts. Combined with two successful and influential nongovernmental organization's (NGO), the Grameen Bank and BRAC, garment exports have been the primary driver of the country's fastest improvement in human development indicators in South Asia this century. However, Ginting <i>et al</i>. (<span>2025</span>) also stress the limits to this growth path, including its narrow export base, very limited technological upgrading and spillover to other sectors, and the likelihood that the privileged export market access arrangements will soon expire.</p><p>Pakistan's development record is a history of missed opportunities, as documented by van der Eng (<span>2025</span>). Once a leader among the large South Asian economies, in the decade from 2010 it was overtaken first by India and then by Bangladesh. Notwithstanding the difficult external environment, including the prolonged conflict in Afghanistan, regional religious tensions, environmental catastrophes, and the standoff with India, its problems are essentially home-grown. Its politics has been dominated by a narrow clique drawn from the military, a dynastic political class, and a small business elite. Unable to finance even the most basic economic and social needs, successive governments have resorted to external finance but without the capacity to create debt-service capacities. The result has been a series of revolving-door International Monetary Fund (IMF) rescue packages. It is perhaps no exaggeration to regard it as a “semi-failed state” (The Economist, <span>2024</span>), moreover one that is nuclear-armed and not at peace with three of the four states with which it shares a land border.</p><p>Standing back, three differences with the development trajectories in East Asia are evident. First, the turning points involving the adoption of outward-looking economic development and accelerated economic development, such as China in 1978, Indonesia in 1966, Vietnam in 1986, are not clearly evident. The closest examples are India in 1991, Sri Lanka in 1977, and Bangladesh in the 1990s. But even in these cases, and notwithstanding the clear reform dividends in all three, there continues to be a pronounced ambivalence toward globalization (Kathuria, <span>2025</span>). Second, the vast, dynamic global production networks that have integrated the economies of East Asia, and in turn linked them to global markets, have barely taken root in South Asia, in spite of its shared colonial heritage and language. At the most mundane level, there are barriers to the movement of people within South Asia. Only tourism-dependent Nepal and Sri Lanka have had relatively open regional and international borders to the movement of people.</p><p>Third, regional integration initiatives are minimal (Kathuria, <span>2025</span>). The South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA), which took effect in 2006, is clearly a misnomer, as are the various extra-regional bilateral agreements that countries have signed. Each country maintains extensive lists of sensitive and excluded items, and their trade regimes are becoming more restrictive. The countries also generally eschew mega-regional trade agreements. A notable example is India's decision to withdraw from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership negotiations, and its periodic rice and other export bans. As has been the case in East Asia, unilateral liberalization will always be the most effective trade reform strategy, but it would in turn increase regional economic integration owing to geographic proximity and cultural familiarity, an example of open regionalism.</p><p>South Asia's institutional development has also tended to lag. Admittedly, forms of democracy have taken root in the region, arguably more so than in any other major developing region. All four countries are classified by Freedom House (<span>2023a</span>,<span>b</span>,<span>c</span>,<span>d</span>) as “partly free,” as they have been for most of their independent histories, with scores (ranging from 0 to 100 for least to most democratic) of 66 for India, 54 for Sri Lanka, 40 for Bangladesh, and 37 for Pakistan. However, as Subramanian (<span>2025</span>) observed in his commentary on Kathuria (<span>2025</span>), “majoritarian” political cultures are evident, with challenging implications for ethnic and religious harmony, and also for the business environments. In fact, most international rankings suggest a mixed picture. For example, the countries' rankings on Transparency International's (<span>2024</span>) corruption perception index are broadly similar to, or below, their per capita income rankings. Of the 180 countries for which estimates are provided for 2023, the country rankings range from India at 93 to Bangladesh at 149; Pakistan (133) and Sri Lanka (115) occupy intermediate positions.</p><p>What of the future? Political, economic, and environmental uncertainties abound, especially if, as suggested by some IMF economists, the global economy is entering a period of “high-debt low-growth” (Adrian <i>et al</i>., <span>2024</span>). In such a scenario, one can be reasonably confident about continued economic growth only in India. Notwithstanding the many caveats about that country's growth projections, including looming environmental threats, its alleged democratic regression, and distributional outcomes, its political and business environment appear to be settled, its macroeconomic house is in order (even with its high public debt), its huge domestic market is well placed to navigate external shocks, and the country's has unparalleled economic and diplomatic heft, particularly in a polarized world.</p><p>For the two debt-crisis economies, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, the immediate challenge is to restore macroeconomic stability, implement their debt negotiation programs, and return to growth. There is ample evidence in international debt crisis experiences that recovery is feasible, for example, as occurred in the aftermath of the 1997–1998 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC). In both Pakistan and Sri Lanka, however, the path to recovery is complicated by polarized political communities, the difficulty of forging a negotiated consensus among international creditors (particularly but not only with China), and economies with over-sized non-tradable sectors that increase the effective debt-service burden. The longer the recovery is delayed, the more difficult will the problems become, exacerbated by the exodus of human capital already evident, and the propensity for renewed political conflict. In early 2024, the obstacles look particularly serious in Pakistan.</p><p>Bangladesh's future depends critically on whether the reforms advocated by Ginting <i>et al</i>. (<span>2025</span>) can be implemented. The country's great advantage is that its recent history has clearly indicated that it can grow fast and reduce poverty quickly. Although it has signed a precautionary agreement with the IMF, its macroeconomic fundamentals are basically sound. It has the capacity to follow the East Asian “flying geese” model by diversifying into a wider range of manufactures. There are no insuperable technical barriers for adopting such a strategy, even in the more crowded and competitive international market place. Given its polarized politics, the country is at the crossroads: it is now up to the country's political, business, and bureaucratic elite to decide which path to take.</p><p>It needs to be noted also that the papers in this issue were written for a March 2024 conference and revised for publication shortly thereafter. Since then, there have been important political developments in Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka which, especially in the case of Bangladesh, may affect the region's development outlook.</p><p>Bangladesh's long-serving prime minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted on August 5 and she immediately went into exile following weeks of popular and increasingly violent protests, the result of her deeply unpopular and authoritarian leadership, and the rigged national elections of January 7. An interim government headed by the respected Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus has been installed to rebuild institutions and to chart a return to democratic government. The political unrest has had adverse economic consequences. At the time of writing, it is unclear whether, and how quickly, Bangladesh's economy will recover, and whether it portends major changes in the country's development strategy.</p><p>Sri Lanka had a presidential election on September 21 that resulted in a decisive leftward shift in its politics. The successful candidate, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, then dissolved the parliament and called for new elections, which his party won with an overwhelming majority. Unlike in Bangladesh earlier in the year, both the presidential and parliamentary elections were legitimate and the results uncontested (a not insignificant achievement given the country's deep economic and political crises). But here too it is unclear whether the new government will fundamentally change economic policies. An immediate challenge concerns the ongoing debt negotiations with the IMF and its creditors.</p><p>The Indian elections held during the months of April, May, and June, which were also conducted fairly, resulted in Prime Minister Modi losing his parliamentary majority and for the first time being forced into a coalition with some minor parties. Although PM Modi's political authority has been somewhat diminished, it appears unlikely that there will be any fundamental changes in Indian economic policy.</p><p>This section summarizes the papers presented at the 39th Asian Economic Policy Review Conference held online on March 22, 2024, the comments by the assigned discussants, and the general discussion of each paper. 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引用次数: 0

摘要

本期《亚洲经济政策评论》特刊考察了孟加拉国、印度、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡四个南亚经济体的经济发展情况。在过去的38期杂志中,我们有2期专门讨论印度(第3卷第2期和第14卷第1期),但甚至没有一篇论文专门讨论孟加拉国、巴基斯坦或斯里兰卡。本期《亚洲经济政策评论》试图填补这一空白。南亚是世界上人口最多的地区,占世界人口的21%。然而,贫困普遍存在,从全球来看,这些国家的经济规模相对较小:它们占全球产出的5.2%,这表明它们的人均收入约为全球数字的四分之一。虽然孟加拉国和巴基斯坦的人口非常多(分别为1.73亿和2.4亿),但印度是世界上人口最多的国家,拥有14.29亿人口,在南亚的经济、政治和人口结构上占主导地位。按官方汇率计算,印度现在是世界第五大经济体,按购买力平价汇率计算,印度是世界第三大经济体。自20世纪40年代末独立以来(印度和巴基斯坦于1947年独立,斯里兰卡于1948年独立),该地区的经济命运参差不齐。Kathuria(2025)将独立后的早期时期描述为“浪费的几十年”。在漫长的经济发展过程中,从1950年到2016年,以国际价格计算的全球实际人均收入增长了4.4倍。印度(4.3倍)和巴基斯坦(4.4倍)的增幅与全球平均水平非常相似。斯里兰卡增长较快(7.6),而孟加拉国增长较慢(2.9)正如van der Eng(2025,图1)所示,斯里兰卡独立时的人均收入在该地区遥遥领先,其次是孟加拉国、巴基斯坦和印度。在最近的宏观经济危机之前,斯里兰卡一直是最繁荣的国家,但印度已经超过了孟加拉国和巴基斯坦。巴基斯坦现在是四个国家中最穷的,而且差距还是很大。从社会指标来看,斯里兰卡也是该地区的领先者。2021年,中国的人类发展指数为0.78,远高于印度(0.63)、孟加拉国(0.66)和巴基斯坦(非常低的0.54)。在教育、卫生、贫困和性别平等等各项指标方面,斯里兰卡处于领先地位,巴基斯坦处于落后地位。此外,尽管该地区鼓吹平等主义,但与东北亚和东南亚(以下简称东亚)相比,贫困对经济增长的反应普遍较弱。南亚尚未经历迅速的、劳动密集的、以出口为导向的工业化,而这种工业化在东亚大部分地区已经对劳动力市场产生了变革性的影响。一个重要因素是相对较低的劳动力参与率,尤其是女性(世界银行,2024年;Kathuria, 2025)。随着经济发展的进程,随着收入的增加,农业也在减少劳动力。然而,非农业部门并没有提供足够数量的好工作,从而限制了人口红利带来的机会。这些发展成果是由这些国家独立以来的初始条件和采取的经济和社会政策所解释的。这些国家的殖民起源在独立后的几十年里一直回响着。鉴于这些国家的英国殖民背景,该地区受过教育的精英通常在英国学习,伦敦和牛津剑桥是受欢迎的目的地,在那里他们被费边社会主义所吸引,这是后殖民时期采用内向型发展战略的一个因素。英国央行(Bank of England)的影响力也有所体现,最初是货币发行局的安排,随后是审慎的货币政策。早期的领导人说着同样的语言,无论是字面上还是比喻上,这使得独立时期的地区不和谐更加难以理解。其中三个国家由于1947年的分治而有过痛苦的开端。孟加拉国,以前的东巴基斯坦,打了一场代价高昂的独立战争。从21世纪20年代的角度来看,并过分简化,目前正在经历最严重的经济和政治挑战的国家最初预计会表现良好,而反之亦然。用李光耀令人羡慕的话说,斯里兰卡被视为“模范殖民地”,它似乎拥有快速经济发展的所有先决条件——优秀的人力资本指标(包括低性别差异)、运转良好的政治体系、完善的行政机构和关键的地理位置。巴基斯坦似乎也有良好的前景,拥有充满活力的企业家阶层,与美国关系密切。 相比之下,人们对印度和后来的孟加拉国的前景非常悲观:印度转向国内,其经济由著名的“许可证统治”管理,其发展轨迹被描述为3.5%经济增长的“印度教均衡”,即2.5%的人口增长和1%的人均国内生产总值(GDP)增长。上世纪70年代,饱受战争蹂躏的孟加拉国被普遍认为是一个毫无希望的国家,经济发展前景渺茫。正如本卷的作者所解释的那样,这些早期的期望没有实现,在很大程度上要归功于随后的政治和经济发展。在20世纪60年代末和70年代初系统地脱离全球经济后,Athukorala(2025)强调,斯里兰卡实际上是该地区第一个在1977年实现贸易和投资体制自由化的国家。虽然自由化是不完全的,但它产生了立竿见影的效果,加速了出口和经济增长。然而,这些改革被1983年至2009年旷日持久且日益残酷的民族内战所取代。在拉贾帕克萨执政期间,腐败加剧和财政冒险主义进一步扼杀了随后的复苏。最终,是新冠疫情和全球利率上升,促成了该国独立历史上最严重的宏观经济危机,从2021年开始,一直持续到现在。Panagariya(2025)表明,随着经济增长在部分改革和扩大借贷的推动下开始加速,印度终于在20世纪80年代开始摆脱许可证制度的束缚。然而,这种债务驱动的战略在1991年引发了一场财政和债务危机,部分原因是第一次海湾战争后油价上涨。与危机-改革假说一致,政府采取了一系列重大的自由化改革作为回应,这些改革虽然滞后,但却带来了历史性的快速经济增长。Panagariya(2025)强调,这些和随后的改革基本上得到了两党的支持,并为该国成为全球经济超级大国奠定了基础。此外,正如Ray和Mohan(2025)所述,自2016年5月以来,印度采用了“灵活通胀目标”(FIT)制度,由中央政府设定通胀目标及其界限。Ray和Mohan对FIT的评价是,1995-1996年至2007-2008年期间观察到的平均通货膨胀率与FIT期间(2016年至今)的通货膨胀率相当,2008-2009年至2012-2013年期间被视为印度通货膨胀史上的一次异常。除了货币政策,Ray和Mohan还研究了印度银行业的健康状况和数字支付基础设施的进展。2017年之后,由于简化和加速破产程序的立法、印度储备银行(RBI)监督程序的加强以及政府对银行进行资本重组的努力,印度银行体系的健康状况显著改善。统一支付接口(UPI)的建立,允许商家通过单一应用程序或应用内支付进行支付,以及不同的公用事业账单支付和基于二维码(扫描和支付)的支付,被视为游戏规则的改变者。孟加拉国是南亚出人意料的成功故事。在独立时,它是世界上最贫穷的国家之一。它似乎没有什么经济发展的前景,这一判断在它动荡的头二十年得到了证实。然而,20世纪90年代以来更加稳定的政治环境创造了经济机会。正如Ginting等人(2025)所描述的那样,其中最主要的是它作为世界领先的服装出口国之一取得了惊人的成功。这一增长受到三个主要因素的推动:来自韩国的初步探索性投资迅速产生了溢出效应;积极的政府政策促进了行业的发展;以及经济合作与发展组织(经合发组织)市场的优惠出口市场准入。这种快速、劳动密集型的出口扩张对劳动力市场产生了变革性影响。与两个成功且有影响力的非政府组织(NGO)——格莱珉银行(Grameen Bank)和孟加拉国农村发展委员会(BRAC)一道,服装出口成为本世纪南亚地区人类发展指标改善最快的主要推动力。然而,Ginting等人(2025)也强调了这种增长路径的局限性,包括其狭窄的出口基础,非常有限的技术升级和对其他部门的溢出,以及特权出口市场准入安排即将到期的可能性。正如van der Eng(2025)所记载的那样,巴基斯坦的发展记录是一部错失机遇的历史。 它曾是南亚大型经济体中的领头羊,但从2010年开始的十年间,先后被印度和孟加拉国超越。尽管外部环境艰难,包括阿富汗的长期冲突、地区宗教紧张局势、环境灾难以及与印度的对峙,但其问题本质上是国内的。它的政治一直被一个从军队、王朝政治阶层和小企业精英中抽离出来的小集团所主导。历届政府甚至无法为最基本的经济和社会需求提供资金,因此求助于外部融资,但却没有能力创造偿债能力。其结果是国际货币基金组织(IMF)的一系列“旋转门”救援计划。将其视为“半失败国家”或许并不夸张(《经济学人》,2024年),此外,它拥有核武器,与与它共享陆地边界的四个国家中的三个没有和平关系。退一步看,中国与东亚的发展轨迹有三个明显的不同。首先,涉及采取外向型经济发展和加速经济发展的转折点,如1978年的中国、1966年的印度尼西亚、1986年的越南,并不明显。最接近的例子是1991年的印度、1977年的斯里兰卡和上世纪90年代的孟加拉国。但即使在这些情况下,尽管这三个国家都有明显的改革红利,但对全球化仍然存在明显的矛盾心理(Kathuria, 2025)。第二,庞大的、充满活力的全球生产网络将东亚经济整合起来,并反过来将它们与全球市场联系起来,尽管南亚有着共同的殖民传统和语言,但它几乎没有在南亚扎根。在最普通的层面上,南亚地区的人员流动存在障碍。只有依赖旅游业的尼泊尔和斯里兰卡对人口流动有相对开放的区域和国际边界。第三,区域一体化举措很少(Kathuria, 2025)。2006年生效的南亚自由贸易区(SAFTA),就像各国签署的各种区域外双边协议一样,显然是一个用词不当。每个国家都保留着大量的敏感和排除项目清单,它们的贸易制度正变得越来越具有限制性。这些国家也普遍回避大型区域贸易协定。一个显著的例子是印度决定退出《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,简称rcep)谈判,并对大米和其他产品实施定期出口禁令。正如东亚的情况一样,单边自由化将永远是最有效的贸易改革战略,但由于地理接近和文化熟悉,它反过来又会增加区域经济一体化,这是开放区域主义的一个例子。南亚的制度发展也趋于滞后。诚然,民主的各种形式已经在该地区扎根,可以说比任何其他主要发展中地区都要多。这四个国家都被自由之家(2023a,b,c,d)列为“部分自由”,因为它们在独立的大部分历史中都是如此,得分(从0到100,代表最不民主到最民主)印度为66分,斯里兰卡为54分,孟加拉国为40分,巴基斯坦为37分。然而,正如Subramanian(2025)在他对Kathuria(2025)的评论中所观察到的那样,“多数主义”的政治文化是显而易见的,对种族和宗教和谐以及商业环境都具有挑战性。事实上,大多数国际排名显示的情况好坏参半。例如,这些国家在透明国际(Transparency International)(2024)腐败感知指数上的排名与它们的人均收入排名大致相似或低于它们。在提供2023年估计的180个国家中,国家排名从印度的第93位到孟加拉国的第149位;巴基斯坦(133)和斯里兰卡(115)位居中间位置。未来会怎样?政治、经济和环境的不确定性比比皆是,特别是如果像一些IMF经济学家所建议的那样,全球经济正在进入“高债务低增长”时期(Adrian et al., 2024)。在这种情况下,人们可以合理地相信,只有印度的经济才能持续增长。尽管对该国的增长预测有许多警告,包括迫在眉睫的环境威胁、所谓的民主倒退和分配结果,但其政治和商业环境似乎已得到解决,其宏观经济状况良好(即使公共债务高企),其巨大的国内市场能够很好地应对外部冲击,该国拥有无与伦比的经济和外交影响力,特别是在一个两极分化的世界中。对于巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡这两个陷入债务危机的经济体来说,当前的挑战是恢复宏观经济稳定,实施债务谈判计划,并恢复增长。 国际债务危机的经验有充分的证据表明,复苏是可行的,例如,1997-1998年亚洲金融危机(AFC)之后的情况。然而,在巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡,由于政治社会两极分化,国际债权人(特别是但不仅是与中国)之间难以达成协商一致,以及非贸易部门规模过大的经济体增加了有效的偿债负担,复苏之路变得复杂。复苏拖得越久,问题就会变得越困难,而业已明显的人力资本外流和重新爆发政治冲突的倾向又会加剧这些问题。在2024年初,巴基斯坦的障碍看起来特别严重。孟加拉国的未来关键取决于Ginting等人(2025)所倡导的改革是否能够实施。该国的巨大优势在于,其近期历史清楚地表明,它能够快速增长,迅速减少贫困。尽管它与国际货币基金组织签署了一项预防性协议,但它的宏观经济基本面基本上是健全的。中国有能力效仿东亚的“雁行”模式,扩大制造业的多元化。即使在更拥挤和竞争更激烈的国际市场上,采取这种战略也没有不可逾越的技术障碍。鉴于其政治两极分化,该国正处于十字路口:现在由该国的政治、商业和官僚精英决定走哪条路。还需要指出的是,本期的论文是为2024年3月的一次会议写的,并在会后不久进行了修订。从那时起,孟加拉国、印度和斯里兰卡出现了重要的政治发展,特别是孟加拉国的情况,可能会影响该地区的发展前景。长期任职的孟加拉国总理谢赫·哈西娜(Sheikh Hasina)于8月5日被赶下台,在经历了数周的民众抗议活动之后,她立即流亡国外。这是她极不受欢迎的独裁领导以及1月7日被操纵的全国选举的结果。由受人尊敬的诺贝尔奖得主穆罕默德·尤努斯领导的临时政府已经成立,以重建机构并制定回归民主政府的计划。政治动荡造成了不利的经济后果。在撰写本文时,尚不清楚孟加拉国的经济是否会复苏,以及复苏的速度有多快,也不清楚这是否预示着该国的发展战略会发生重大变化。斯里兰卡于9月21日举行了总统选举,导致该国政治发生了决定性的左倾。获胜的候选人阿努拉·库马拉·迪萨纳亚克(Anura Kumara Dissanayake)随后解散了议会,并要求举行新的选举,他的政党以压倒性多数赢得了选举。与今年早些时候的孟加拉国不同,这次的总统和议会选举都是合法的,结果也没有争议(考虑到该国严重的经济和政治危机,这一成就并非微不足道)。但在这方面,新政府是否会从根本上改变经济政策仍不明朗。当前的挑战是与国际货币基金组织及其债权人正在进行的债务谈判。印度在4月、5月和6月举行的选举也是公平进行的,结果是总理莫迪失去了议会多数席位,并首次被迫与一些小党组成联合政府。尽管莫迪总理的政治权威有所减弱,但印度的经济政策似乎不太可能发生根本性的变化。本部分总结了2024年3月22日在网上召开的第39届亚洲经济政策评论会议上发表的论文、指定讨论者的评论以及每篇论文的总体讨论。附录载有与会人员名单。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
South Asia: Editors' Overview

This special issue of the Asian Economic Policy Review examines the economic development of four economies of South Asia,1 Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Over the past 38 issues of the journal, we have had 2 issues devoted to India (Vol. 3, No. 2 and Vol. 14, No. 1), but not even 1 paper focused solely on Bangladesh, Pakistan, or Sri Lanka. This issue of the Asian Economic Policy Review attempts to fill that gap.

South Asia is the world's most populous region, comprising 21% of the world's population. However, poverty is widespread and the economies are relatively small in global terms: they generate 5.2% of global output, indicating that their average per capita income is about one-quarter of the global figure.2

Although Bangladesh and Pakistan have very large populations (173 million and 240 million, respectively), India, the world's most populous nation with 1,429 million people, dominates South Asia's economy, politics, and demographics. India is now the world's fifth largest economy measured at official exchange rates and the third largest as measured by purchasing power parity exchange rates.

Since independence in the late 1940s (1947 for India and Pakistan, 1948 for Sri Lanka),3 the region has experienced mixed economic fortunes. Kathuria (2025) characterizes the early post-independence period as one of “wasted decades.” Over the long sweep of economic development, from 1950 to 2016 real global per capita income in international prices increased 4.4 times. The increases in India (4.3 times) and Pakistan (4.4) were very similar to the global average. Sri Lanka grew faster (7.6), while Bangladesh was slower (2.9).4 As van der Eng (2025, figure 1) shows, at the time of its independence Sri Lanka had the region's highest per capita income by a substantial margin, followed by Bangladesh, Pakistan and India. Until its recent macroeconomic crisis, Sri Lanka continued to be the most prosperous country, but India has overtaken both Bangladesh and Pakistan. Pakistan is now the poorest of the four, again by a substantial margin.

Sri Lanka is also the region's leader as measured by social indicators. In 2021, its human development index was 0.78, much higher than India (0.63), Bangladesh (0.66), and Pakistan's very low 0.54. Sri Lanka is the leader, and Pakistan the laggard, with respect to various indicators, including education, health, poverty, and gender equity. Moreover, notwithstanding the region's egalitarian rhetoric, poverty has also generally been less responsive to economic growth than it has in Northeast and Southeast Asia (hereafter referred to as East Asia). South Asia has yet to experience the rapid, labor-intensive, export-oriented industrialization that has had transformational labor market effects in much of East Asia. One important factor is the relatively low labor force participation rates, exceptionally so for females (World Bank, 2024; Kathuria, 2025). Consistent with the process of economic development, as incomes rise agriculture is shedding labor. However, the nonagricultural sectors are not providing good jobs in sufficient numbers, in turn limiting the opportunities that arise through the demographic dividend.

These development outcomes are explained by the countries' initial conditions and economic and social policies adopted since independence. The countries' colonial origins resonated for decades after independence. Given the countries' British colonial background, the region's educated elites typically studied in the United Kingdom with London and Oxbridge being favored destinations, where they were attracted to Fabian socialism, a factor contributing to the post-colonial adoption of inward-looking development strategies. The influence of the Bank of England was also felt, initially with currency board arrangements and subsequently with monetary prudence. The early leaders spoke the same language, literally and figuratively, which makes the regional disharmony of the independence era all the more difficult to understand.

Three of the countries had traumatic beginnings owing to the 1947 partition. Bangladesh, formerly East Pakistan, fought a costly war of independence. Viewed from the 2020s, and to oversimplify greatly, the countries that are now experiencing the most serious economic and political challenges were initially expected to perform well, while the converse is also true. Sri Lanka was regarded as the “model colony,” to employ Lee Kuan Yew's envious characterization, and it appeared to possess all the preconditions for rapid economic development—excellent human capital indicators (including low gender disparities), a functioning political system, a well-established administrative apparatus, and a pivotal geographic location. Pakistan also appeared to have good prospects, with a dynamic entrepreneurial class and close relations with the USA. By contrast, there was much pessimism about prospects in India and later Bangladesh: India turned inward, its economy was administered by the famous “license raj,” and its development trajectory was characterized as the “Hindu equilibrium” of 3.5% economic growth, that is, 2.5% population growth and 1% per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. War-ravaged Bangladesh was widely regarded as a basket case in the 1970s, with little prospect of economic development.

That these early expectations were not realized owes much to subsequent political and economic developments, as the contributors to this volume explain. After disengaging systematically from the global economy in the late 1960s and early 1970s, Athukorala (2025) highlights that Sri Lanka was actually the first country in the region to liberalize its trade and investment regime, in 1977. Although the liberalization was incomplete, it had immediate results and led to accelerated export and economic growth. However, the reforms were overtaken by a prolonged and increasingly vicious ethnic-based civil war from 1983 to 2009. The subsequent recovery was further nipped in the bud by spiraling corruption and fiscal adventurism during the Rajapaksa years. It was finally the COVID pandemic and rising global interest rates that precipitated the country's most serious macroeconomic crisis in its independent history, commencing in 2021 and continuing to the present.

Panagariya (2025) shows that India finally began to discard the shackles of the license raj in the 1980s, as economic growth began to accelerate, driven by partial reforms and expanded borrowings. However, this debt-driven strategy precipitated a fiscal and debt crisis in 1991, triggered in part by rising oil prices in the wake of the First Gulf War. Consistent with the crisis-reform hypothesis, the government responded by embarking on a series of major liberalizing reforms which, with a lag, resulted in historically rapid economic growth. Panagariya (2025) stresses that these and subsequent reforms have basically enjoyed bi-partisan support ever since, and have set the stage for the country becoming a global economic superpower.

Moreover, as Ray and Mohan (2025) document, since May 2016 India has adopted a “flexible inflation targeting” (FIT) regime whereby the central government sets the inflation target and its bounds. Ray and Mohan's evaluation of FIT is that average inflation rates observed during the 1995–1996 to 2007–2008 period are quite comparable with those during the FIT years (from 2016 to the present) with the period 2008–2009 to 2012–2013 being viewed as an aberration in India's inflation history. In addition to monetary policy, Ray and Mohan also examine the health of Indian's banking sector and advances in digital payments infrastructure. The health of Indian's banking system has improved significantly after 2017 as a result of legislation to simplify and accelerate bankruptcy procedures, a strengthening of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) surveillance procedures, and government efforts to recapitalize the banks. The establishment of the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) that allows merchant payments with Single Application or In-App Payments, as well as different utility bill payments and QR Code (Scan and Pay) based payments, is viewed as a game changer.

Bangladesh is the unexpected success story in South Asia. At the time of independence, it was one of the poorest countries in the world. It appeared to have little prospect of economic development, a judgment confirmed by its first two, turbulent decades. However, the more settled political environment from the 1990s created economic opportunities. Principal among these, as described by Ginting et al. (2025), has been its spectacular success as one of the world's leading garment exporters. The growth has been driven by three main factors: an initial exploratory investment from Korea which quickly had spillover effects; pro-active government policies that facilitated the industry's expansion; and concessional export market access in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) markets. This rapid, labor-intensive export expansion has had transformational labor market impacts. Combined with two successful and influential nongovernmental organization's (NGO), the Grameen Bank and BRAC, garment exports have been the primary driver of the country's fastest improvement in human development indicators in South Asia this century. However, Ginting et al. (2025) also stress the limits to this growth path, including its narrow export base, very limited technological upgrading and spillover to other sectors, and the likelihood that the privileged export market access arrangements will soon expire.

Pakistan's development record is a history of missed opportunities, as documented by van der Eng (2025). Once a leader among the large South Asian economies, in the decade from 2010 it was overtaken first by India and then by Bangladesh. Notwithstanding the difficult external environment, including the prolonged conflict in Afghanistan, regional religious tensions, environmental catastrophes, and the standoff with India, its problems are essentially home-grown. Its politics has been dominated by a narrow clique drawn from the military, a dynastic political class, and a small business elite. Unable to finance even the most basic economic and social needs, successive governments have resorted to external finance but without the capacity to create debt-service capacities. The result has been a series of revolving-door International Monetary Fund (IMF) rescue packages. It is perhaps no exaggeration to regard it as a “semi-failed state” (The Economist, 2024), moreover one that is nuclear-armed and not at peace with three of the four states with which it shares a land border.

Standing back, three differences with the development trajectories in East Asia are evident. First, the turning points involving the adoption of outward-looking economic development and accelerated economic development, such as China in 1978, Indonesia in 1966, Vietnam in 1986, are not clearly evident. The closest examples are India in 1991, Sri Lanka in 1977, and Bangladesh in the 1990s. But even in these cases, and notwithstanding the clear reform dividends in all three, there continues to be a pronounced ambivalence toward globalization (Kathuria, 2025). Second, the vast, dynamic global production networks that have integrated the economies of East Asia, and in turn linked them to global markets, have barely taken root in South Asia, in spite of its shared colonial heritage and language. At the most mundane level, there are barriers to the movement of people within South Asia. Only tourism-dependent Nepal and Sri Lanka have had relatively open regional and international borders to the movement of people.

Third, regional integration initiatives are minimal (Kathuria, 2025). The South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA), which took effect in 2006, is clearly a misnomer, as are the various extra-regional bilateral agreements that countries have signed. Each country maintains extensive lists of sensitive and excluded items, and their trade regimes are becoming more restrictive. The countries also generally eschew mega-regional trade agreements. A notable example is India's decision to withdraw from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership negotiations, and its periodic rice and other export bans. As has been the case in East Asia, unilateral liberalization will always be the most effective trade reform strategy, but it would in turn increase regional economic integration owing to geographic proximity and cultural familiarity, an example of open regionalism.

South Asia's institutional development has also tended to lag. Admittedly, forms of democracy have taken root in the region, arguably more so than in any other major developing region. All four countries are classified by Freedom House (2023a,b,c,d) as “partly free,” as they have been for most of their independent histories, with scores (ranging from 0 to 100 for least to most democratic) of 66 for India, 54 for Sri Lanka, 40 for Bangladesh, and 37 for Pakistan. However, as Subramanian (2025) observed in his commentary on Kathuria (2025), “majoritarian” political cultures are evident, with challenging implications for ethnic and religious harmony, and also for the business environments. In fact, most international rankings suggest a mixed picture. For example, the countries' rankings on Transparency International's (2024) corruption perception index are broadly similar to, or below, their per capita income rankings. Of the 180 countries for which estimates are provided for 2023, the country rankings range from India at 93 to Bangladesh at 149; Pakistan (133) and Sri Lanka (115) occupy intermediate positions.

What of the future? Political, economic, and environmental uncertainties abound, especially if, as suggested by some IMF economists, the global economy is entering a period of “high-debt low-growth” (Adrian et al., 2024). In such a scenario, one can be reasonably confident about continued economic growth only in India. Notwithstanding the many caveats about that country's growth projections, including looming environmental threats, its alleged democratic regression, and distributional outcomes, its political and business environment appear to be settled, its macroeconomic house is in order (even with its high public debt), its huge domestic market is well placed to navigate external shocks, and the country's has unparalleled economic and diplomatic heft, particularly in a polarized world.

For the two debt-crisis economies, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, the immediate challenge is to restore macroeconomic stability, implement their debt negotiation programs, and return to growth. There is ample evidence in international debt crisis experiences that recovery is feasible, for example, as occurred in the aftermath of the 1997–1998 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC). In both Pakistan and Sri Lanka, however, the path to recovery is complicated by polarized political communities, the difficulty of forging a negotiated consensus among international creditors (particularly but not only with China), and economies with over-sized non-tradable sectors that increase the effective debt-service burden. The longer the recovery is delayed, the more difficult will the problems become, exacerbated by the exodus of human capital already evident, and the propensity for renewed political conflict. In early 2024, the obstacles look particularly serious in Pakistan.

Bangladesh's future depends critically on whether the reforms advocated by Ginting et al. (2025) can be implemented. The country's great advantage is that its recent history has clearly indicated that it can grow fast and reduce poverty quickly. Although it has signed a precautionary agreement with the IMF, its macroeconomic fundamentals are basically sound. It has the capacity to follow the East Asian “flying geese” model by diversifying into a wider range of manufactures. There are no insuperable technical barriers for adopting such a strategy, even in the more crowded and competitive international market place. Given its polarized politics, the country is at the crossroads: it is now up to the country's political, business, and bureaucratic elite to decide which path to take.

It needs to be noted also that the papers in this issue were written for a March 2024 conference and revised for publication shortly thereafter. Since then, there have been important political developments in Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka which, especially in the case of Bangladesh, may affect the region's development outlook.

Bangladesh's long-serving prime minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted on August 5 and she immediately went into exile following weeks of popular and increasingly violent protests, the result of her deeply unpopular and authoritarian leadership, and the rigged national elections of January 7. An interim government headed by the respected Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus has been installed to rebuild institutions and to chart a return to democratic government. The political unrest has had adverse economic consequences. At the time of writing, it is unclear whether, and how quickly, Bangladesh's economy will recover, and whether it portends major changes in the country's development strategy.

Sri Lanka had a presidential election on September 21 that resulted in a decisive leftward shift in its politics. The successful candidate, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, then dissolved the parliament and called for new elections, which his party won with an overwhelming majority. Unlike in Bangladesh earlier in the year, both the presidential and parliamentary elections were legitimate and the results uncontested (a not insignificant achievement given the country's deep economic and political crises). But here too it is unclear whether the new government will fundamentally change economic policies. An immediate challenge concerns the ongoing debt negotiations with the IMF and its creditors.

The Indian elections held during the months of April, May, and June, which were also conducted fairly, resulted in Prime Minister Modi losing his parliamentary majority and for the first time being forced into a coalition with some minor parties. Although PM Modi's political authority has been somewhat diminished, it appears unlikely that there will be any fundamental changes in Indian economic policy.

This section summarizes the papers presented at the 39th Asian Economic Policy Review Conference held online on March 22, 2024, the comments by the assigned discussants, and the general discussion of each paper. The appendix contains list of conference participants.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
12.90
自引率
2.60%
发文量
39
期刊介绍: The goal of the Asian Economic Policy Review is to become an intellectual voice on the current issues of international economics and economic policy, based on comprehensive and in-depth analyses, with a primary focus on Asia. Emphasis is placed on identifying key issues at the time - spanning international trade, international finance, the environment, energy, the integration of regional economies and other issues - in order to furnish ideas and proposals to contribute positively to the policy debate in the region.
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