Predicting the Effect of Temperature Changes on Phlebotomus papatasi Activity, as the Main Vector of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Iran

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) represents a significant vector-borne disease in Iran. Our study examined the status of zoonotic CL (ZCL) in the country and forecasted the influence of global climate change on the monthly activity of Phlebotomus papatasi, the main vector of ZCL in the country. To predict the impact of climate change on the monthly activity of Ph. papatasi, we obtained the monthly average minimum and maximum temperatures for both the reference and future periods, using the MIROC6 model and two different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Based on our analysis, we found that Ph. papatasi can be active in Iran from March to November, although this may vary depending on the region. Our predictions suggest that the duration of Ph. papatasi’s activity may change following future changes in weather patterns. In different scenarios, the duration of the active season in various regions of the country extends by at least 1–2 months. This extension is likely more pronounced in the southern provinces. Additionally, our findings indicate a notable correlation between ZCL incidence, the presence of Ph. papatasi, and environmental factors in Ardestan, Esfahan Province. This study focuses on the impact of temperature on the activity and distribution of Ph. papatasi in Iran, which is a significant vector for transmitting ZCL. The study predicts that with future climate scenarios, especially SSP5-8.5, the activity of this vector will start earlier, last longer, and might even occur throughout the year by the 2050s, thereby increasing the risk of ZCL transmission. Although temperature plays a dominant role in shaping the activity of Ph. papatasi, its influence is not consistent across Iran. The variation in different regions emphasizes the importance of implementing targeted public health approaches to address the changing risks of ZCL transmission due to evolving climate conditions. However, it acknowledges that certain factors such as land use and humidity have not been taken into account and requests additional research in these areas. It also calls for enhanced environmental monitoring and public health interventions.