Modeling the impact of urban climate transformations in low income housing located in critical climate: A case study

Global warming and urban densification impact the thermal performance of buildings, yet these effects are often overlooked in professional and academic settings. This study conducted a case study through simulation with modified climate files to quantify the extreme effects resulting from the combination of hot-humid climate, urban densification, and global warming on a model of social housing in Belém, Brazil. Current scenarios were established, and thermal performance simulations were conducted. This involved adapting weather files to two distinct urban patterns: high and low densification. These files were adjusted to capture variations in essential parameters, reflecting the unique climatic conditions of each urban environment. Subsequently, the thermal performance of social housing units was simulated using these files, enabling a comprehensive analysis of thermal dynamics. This facilitated identifying key parameters in urban climate zones, considering potential increases in urban densification and global warming. The results reveal a significant impact of the combined effect of urban densification and global warming on both outdoor and indoor social housing, reducing habitability and requiring air conditioning almost year-round in near and distant future climates. The conclusions aim to contribute to diagnosing and understanding the climate crisis and urban climate's role in the resilience of vulnerable populations.