供应链压力下的货币政策传导

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104949

Sebastian Laumer , Matthew Schaffer

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究考察了全球供应链状况如何影响大流行前时期美国货币政策的传导。我们发现，供应链压力升高放大了货币政策冲击对宏观经济结果的标准影响。例如，当供应链受到压力时，对产量和价格的峰值影响分别高出160%和30%。这种放大源于信贷渠道的强化，因为在供应链压力加剧的情况下，与外部融资成本相关的金融变量对货币政策变得更加敏感。例如，超额债券溢价的峰值反应会增加一倍。企业层面的估计进一步支持了这一结论，当供应链紧张时，投资对货币政策冲击的反应要快三倍。将样本延长至2020年3月以后，放大效应变得更大，且滞后长度更长。

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Monetary policy transmission under supply chain pressure

This study examines how global supply chain conditions influence the transmission of US monetary policy during the pre-pandemic period. We find that elevated supply chain pressures amplify the standard effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic outcomes. For instance, peak effects on output and prices are 160 and 30 percent larger, respectively, when supply chains are stressed. This amplification arises from an intensification of the credit channel, as financial variables related to the cost of external finance become more sensitive to monetary policy under heightened supply chain pressures. For example, the peak response of the excess bond premium doubles in magnitude. Firm-level estimates further support this conclusion, with investment becoming three times more responsive to monetary policy shocks when supply chains are strained. When extending the sample beyond March 2020, the amplification effect becomes larger and occurs at longer lag lengths.

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来源期刊

European Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

4.70

自引率

3.60%

发文量

170

期刊介绍： The European Economic Review (EER) started publishing in 1969 as the first research journal specifically aiming to contribute to the development and application of economics as a science in Europe. As a broad-based professional and international journal, the EER welcomes submissions of applied and theoretical research papers in all fields of economics. The aim of the EER is to contribute to the development of the science of economics and its applications, as well as to improve communication between academic researchers, teachers and policy makers across the European continent and beyond.