人口减少是如何以及为什么导致民粹主义政党获得支持的？捷克共和国的案例

IF 4.7 1区社会学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Political Geography Pub Date : 2024-12-25 DOI:10.1016/j.polgeo.2024.103261

Tomáš Dvořák , Jan Zouhar , Jan Bíba

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引用次数: 0

摘要

近几十年来，后共产主义中欧和东欧国家的特点是人口急剧下降。以捷克共和国为例，我们运用多层次结构方程模型来检验人口下降转化为民粹主义政党支持的机制。结合区域和个人数据，我们表明，2008年至2017年期间记录的长期人口下降（以地区层面衡量）对两个民粹主义政党的偏好产生了影响：激进的民粹主义政党自由与直接民主党（SPD）和更温和的民粹主义政党ANO 2011。这一分析的结果指出了一种机制，即人口下降与社会资本的崩溃有关，而社会资本的崩溃又与支持两个民粹主义政党的投票行为有关。

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How and why does demographic decline lead to support for populist parties? The case of the Czech Republic

In recent decades, a strong demographic decline has characterized post-communist Central and Eastern European countries. Using the Czech Republic as a case study, we apply a multilevel structural equation model to test the mechanism whereby demographic decline translates into support for populist parties. Combining regional and individual data, we show that the long-term demographic decline (measured at the regional level) recorded between 2008 and 2017 had an impact on preferences in favour of two populist parties: the radical populist party, Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), and a more moderate populist party, ANO 2011. The results of this analysis point to a mechanism where demographic decline is associated with a breakdown of social capital, which is then associated with voting behaviour in favour of both populist parties.

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来源期刊

Political Geography Multiple-

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

14.60%

发文量

210

期刊介绍： Political Geography is the flagship journal of political geography and research on the spatial dimensions of politics. The journal brings together leading contributions in its field, promoting international and interdisciplinary communication. Research emphases cover all scales of inquiry and diverse theories, methods, and methodologies.