{"title":"人类世地球系统的混沌行为","authors":"A.E. Bernardini , O. Bertolami , F. Francisco","doi":"10.1016/j.eve.2025.100060","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>It is shown that the Earth System (ES) can, due to the impact of human activities, behave in a chaotic fashion. Our arguments are based on the assumption that the ES can be described by a Landau–Ginzburg model, which on its own allows for predicting that the ES evolves, through regular trajectories in the phase space, towards a Hothouse Earth scenario for a finite amount of human-driven impact. Furthermore, we find that the equilibrium point for temperature fluctuations can exhibit bifurcations and a chaotic pattern if the human impact follows a logistic map. Our final analysis includes interactions between different terms of the planetary boundaries (PB) in order to gauge the predictability of our model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100516,"journal":{"name":"Evolving Earth","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100060"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Chaotic behaviour of the Earth System in the Anthropocene\",\"authors\":\"A.E. Bernardini , O. Bertolami , F. Francisco\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.eve.2025.100060\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>It is shown that the Earth System (ES) can, due to the impact of human activities, behave in a chaotic fashion. Our arguments are based on the assumption that the ES can be described by a Landau–Ginzburg model, which on its own allows for predicting that the ES evolves, through regular trajectories in the phase space, towards a Hothouse Earth scenario for a finite amount of human-driven impact. Furthermore, we find that the equilibrium point for temperature fluctuations can exhibit bifurcations and a chaotic pattern if the human impact follows a logistic map. Our final analysis includes interactions between different terms of the planetary boundaries (PB) in order to gauge the predictability of our model.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":100516,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Evolving Earth\",\"volume\":\"3 \",\"pages\":\"Article 100060\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Evolving Earth\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950117225000044\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Evolving Earth","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950117225000044","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Chaotic behaviour of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
It is shown that the Earth System (ES) can, due to the impact of human activities, behave in a chaotic fashion. Our arguments are based on the assumption that the ES can be described by a Landau–Ginzburg model, which on its own allows for predicting that the ES evolves, through regular trajectories in the phase space, towards a Hothouse Earth scenario for a finite amount of human-driven impact. Furthermore, we find that the equilibrium point for temperature fluctuations can exhibit bifurcations and a chaotic pattern if the human impact follows a logistic map. Our final analysis includes interactions between different terms of the planetary boundaries (PB) in order to gauge the predictability of our model.