人类世地球系统的混沌行为

A.E. Bernardini , O. Bertolami , F. Francisco
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究表明,由于人类活动的影响,地球系统(ES)可以以混沌的方式运行。我们的论点是基于这样一个假设,即ES可以用朗道-金兹堡模型来描述,该模型本身就可以预测ES的演变,通过相空间中的规则轨迹,在有限数量的人类驱动的影响下,向温室地球的方向发展。此外,我们发现,如果人类的影响遵循逻辑映射,温度波动的平衡点会出现分岔和混沌模式。我们的最终分析包括行星边界(PB)不同项之间的相互作用,以衡量我们模型的可预测性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Chaotic behaviour of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
It is shown that the Earth System (ES) can, due to the impact of human activities, behave in a chaotic fashion. Our arguments are based on the assumption that the ES can be described by a Landau–Ginzburg model, which on its own allows for predicting that the ES evolves, through regular trajectories in the phase space, towards a Hothouse Earth scenario for a finite amount of human-driven impact. Furthermore, we find that the equilibrium point for temperature fluctuations can exhibit bifurcations and a chaotic pattern if the human impact follows a logistic map. Our final analysis includes interactions between different terms of the planetary boundaries (PB) in order to gauge the predictability of our model.
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