Changes in the provision and utilisation of health care services for chronic health conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic in rural northeast South Africa: an interrupted time series analysis.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the provision and utilisation of health care services with varying magnitude across settings due to spatial temporal variation in the burden of COVID-19 cases and the roll-out of local COVID-19 response policies. This study assesses changes in the provision and utilisation of health care services for three major chronic health conditions (HIV/AIDS, hypertension, and diabetes) over the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 pandemic periods in a rural South African sub-district of Agincourt.

Methods: Segmented interrupted time series regression models are applied to assess changes in the number of medication collection visits and new diagnoses for HIV/AIDS, hypertension, and diabetes from 1 January 2018 to 30 September 2021 covering the pre- COVID-19 period and the first three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Results: The number of medication collection visits for HIV/AIDS, hypertension, and diabetes dropped following the imposition of level 5 lockdown. Despite some improvements over the course of the pandemic, by the end of the third wave in September 2021, visits remained below the pre-COVID-19 era. The number of clinic visits for new diagnoses of HIV/AIDS and hypertension also fell after the introduction of level 5 lockdown. Although the number of new visits for HIV/AIDS bounced back to the pre-COVID-19 trends by the end of the third wave, the number of visits for new hypertension diagnoses remained significantly lower than expected. Referrals for collection of medications from the Central Chronic Medicines Dispensing and Distribution (CCMDD) programme, as an alternative to collection from clinics, increased exponentially over the course of the pandemic.

Conclusions: Although the increased adoption of the CCMDD programme can in part account for decreased medication collection visits which persisted well after lockdown measures were lifted, marked reductions in the number of newly diagnosed cases of hypertension warrant concern. A deeper assessment of the appropriateness of referrals to the CCMDD programme as well as the longer-term effects on morbidity and mortality of missed treatment and/or delayed diagnosis is needed for a more granular understanding of the true ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown policies in the Agincourt subdistrict and other rural African settings.