人工智能、经济衰退压力和人口健康。

IF 5.7 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Bulletin of the World Health Organization Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-02 DOI:10.2471/BLT.24.291950
Jo-An Occhipinti, Ante Prodan, William Hynes, John Buchanan, Roy Green, Sharan Burrow, Harris A Eyre, Adam Skinner, Ian B Hickie, Mark Heffernan, Yun Ju Christine Song, Goran Ujdur, Marcel Tanner
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引用次数: 0

摘要

经济和劳工政策通过直接的财政影响以及通过塑造社会和自然环境,对健康和福祉产生相当大的影响。强劲的经济对公共卫生投资和就业至关重要,但可再生人工智能(AI)的迅速崛起有可能重塑经济,带来的挑战不仅仅是暂时的市场中断。生成式人工智能可以执行非常规的认知任务,这是以前通过传统自动化无法实现的,创造了新的效率。虽然这项技术为创新和提高生产力提供了机会,但其取代劳动力的潜力引起了人们对经济稳定和社会公平的严重关切,而这两者对健康至关重要。由生成式人工智能驱动的工作岗位流失可能会加剧收入不平等,减少中产阶级的机会,减少消费者需求,从而引发衰退压力。在本文中,我们提出存在一个人工智能资本与劳动力比率阈值,超过这个阈值,可能会出现衰退压力的自我强化周期,而仅凭市场力量无法纠正。针对此类压力的传统应对措施,如财政刺激或货币宽松,可能无法解决人工智能对劳动力市场造成的结构性破坏。我们呼吁采取积极主动的全球应对措施,在降低风险的同时利用生成式人工智能的好处。正如世界卫生大会《人人享有卫生的经济学》决议和联合国《全球数字契约》所强调的那样,这一应对措施应侧重于调整经济制度的方向,使之朝着集体福祉方向发展。将财政政策、监管和社会政策结合起来的综合战略对于确保生成式人工智能促进社会健康和公平,同时避免过度失业造成的伤害至关重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Artificial intelligence, recessionary pressures and population health.

Artificial intelligence, recessionary pressures and population health.

Economic and labour policies have a considerable influence on health and well-being through direct financial impacts, and by shaping social and physical environments. Strong economies are important for public health investment and employment, yet the rapid rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to reshape economies, presenting challenges beyond mere temporary market disruption. Generative AI can perform non-routine cognitive tasks, previously unattainable though traditional automation, creating new efficiencies. While this technology offers opportunities for innovation and productivity, its labour-displacing potential raises serious concerns about economic stability and social equity, both of which are critical to health. Job displacement driven by generative AI could worsen income inequality, shrink middle-class opportunities and reduce consumer demand, triggering recessionary pressures. In this article, we propose the existence of an AI-capital-to-labour ratio threshold beyond which a self-reinforcing cycle of recessionary pressures may emerge, and which market forces alone cannot correct. Traditional responses to such pressures, like fiscal stimulus or monetary easing, may be ineffective in addressing structural disruptions to labour markets caused by generative AI. We call for a proactive global response to harness the benefits of generative AI while mitigating risks. This response should focus on reorienting economic systems towards collective well-being, as emphasized in the World Health Assembly resolution Economics of health for all and the United Nations' Global Digital Compact. Integrated strategies that combine fiscal policy, regulation and social policies are critical to ensuring generative AI advances societal health and equity while avoiding harm from excessive job displacement.

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来源期刊
Bulletin of the World Health Organization
Bulletin of the World Health Organization 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
CiteScore
11.50
自引率
0.90%
发文量
317
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: The Bulletin of the World Health Organization Journal Overview: Leading public health journal Peer-reviewed monthly journal Special focus on developing countries Global scope and authority Top public and environmental health journal Impact factor of 6.818 (2018), according to Web of Science ranking Audience: Essential reading for public health decision-makers and researchers Provides blend of research, well-informed opinion, and news
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