Risk factors for pancreatic cancer in individuals with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms and no high-risk stigmata during up to 5 years of surveillance: a prospective longitudinal cohort study

Background Cyst size, its growth rate, and diameter of the main pancreatic duct (MPD) are all associated with pancreatic carcinoma prevalence in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). Objective To examine the above factors in relation to future risk of incident pancreatic carcinoma in individuals with IPMNs harbouring no high-risk stigmata. Design In a prospective longitudinal cohort, we analysed 2549 patients with IPMNs. A multivariable cause-specific Cox proportional hazards regression model was built to estimate HRs for incident pancreatic carcinoma. Results IPMN size at baseline and its annual growth rate over 2 years of follow-up were associated with incident pancreatic carcinoma (ptrend<0.001). The multivariable cause-specific HR per 10 mm increase in IPMN size was 1.28 (95% CI 1.10 to 1.50). The annual growth rates of 1.5–2.4 mm/year and ≥2.5 mm/year over 2 years were associated with multivariable cause-specific HRs of 1.91 (95% CI 0.78 to 4.67) and 4.52 (95% CI 2.28 to 8.98), respectively (vs <1.5 mm/year). Neither IPMN size at 5 years nor its maximum growth rate during 5 years was associated with incident pancreatic carcinoma (ptrend>0.07). MPD diameter at 5 years was associated with incident pancreatic carcinoma (multivariable cause-specific HR per 2 mm increase, 2.12; 95% CI 1.72 to 2.63). A predictive nomogram was generated for calculating the risk of incident pancreatic carcinoma. Conclusion IPMN size and its growth rate predict future pancreatic carcinoma risk only during first 5 years of follow-up. MPD diameter at 5 years may identify patients who still harbour a high risk for pancreatic carcinoma. Data are available on reasonable request. The deidentified data and analytical methods used in the current study will be available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.