中国不同气候区极端降水估算及其水文应用的六个最新降水数据集评价

IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Yongjing Wan , Daiyuan Li , Jingjing Sun , Mingming Wang , Han Liu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

网格化降水数据集的评价是提高降水精度和支持降水应用的关键。本研究综合评估了6个广泛使用的长期降水数据集在两种水文模型下捕获中国极端降水和河流流量的性能。这些数据集包括一个卫星再分析测量数据集(MSWEP V2)、两个基于测量的数据集(GPCC和CPC)和三个再分析数据集(NECP-2、MERRA-2和ERA5)。评价是在1982-2020年期间按日进行的。与雨量计观测相比,GPCC对极端降水的估计效果最好,其次是MSWEPV2、CPC和MERRA-2。各降水数据集均倾向于低估年最大1日降水量(Rx1)和年最大连续5日降水量(RX5),而高估西北干旱地区的极湿日数(R95p),低估东南湿润地区的极湿日数。将测量数据整合到网格降水数据集中,可以提高极端降水测量的精度。在径流模拟中,GPCC在大多数流域的水文标定分数(克林-古普塔效率,KGE)上表现最好,但在中国西北干旱地区,MSWEP V2表现最好。降水数据集捕捉极端流量的能力与相当大的不确定性有关,这取决于所使用的水文模型,没有一个数据集始终优于其他数据集。此外,在干旱高纬度山区,水文模式选择对径流模拟的影响比湿润低纬度地区更为显著。本研究对最新降水数据集的可靠性及其在水文建模中的应用提供了重要的见解,有望为这些数据集的利用提供参考。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Evaluation of six latest precipitation datasets for extreme precipitation estimates and hydrological application across various climate regions in China
The evaluation of gridded precipitation datasets is crucial for enhancing precipitation accuracy and supporting its applications. This study comprehensively evaluated the performances of six widely used long-term precipitation datasets in capturing extreme precipitation and streamflow over China using two hydrological models. These datasets include one satellite-reanalysis-gauge dataset (MSWEP V2), two gauged-based datasets (GPCC and CPC), and three reanalysis datasets (NECP-2, MERRA-2, and ERA5). The evaluation was performed at a daily timescale for the period 1982–2020. Compared with the rain gauge observations, GPCC provides the best performance in extreme precipitation estimation, followed by MSWEPV2, CPC, and MERRA-2. All precipitation datasets tend to underestimate annual maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1) and annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5), while they overestimate the extremely wet days (R95p) in dry northwestern China and underestimate it in wet southeastern China. Integrating gauge data into gridded precipitation datasets enhances the accuracy of extreme precipitation measurements. For streamflow simulation, GPCC shows the best performances across most catchments regarding hydrological calibration score (Kling–Gupta efficiency, KGE), except in arid northwestern China, where MSWEP V2 performed best. The ability of precipitation datasets to capture extreme streamflow is associated with considerable uncertainties, depending on the hydrological model used, and no single dataset consistently outperforms others. Besides, the influence of hydrological model selection in streamflow simulations is more significant in dry and high-latitude mountainous regions than in wet and low-latitude regions. This study provides significant insights into the reliability of the latest precipitation datasets and their applications in hydrological modeling, which is expected to serve as a reference for utilizing these datasets.
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来源期刊
Atmospheric Research
Atmospheric Research 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
10.90%
发文量
460
审稿时长
47 days
期刊介绍: The journal publishes scientific papers (research papers, review articles, letters and notes) dealing with the part of the atmosphere where meteorological events occur. Attention is given to all processes extending from the earth surface to the tropopause, but special emphasis continues to be devoted to the physics of clouds, mesoscale meteorology and air pollution, i.e. atmospheric aerosols; microphysical processes; cloud dynamics and thermodynamics; numerical simulation, climatology, climate change and weather modification.
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