The Interactive Role of Climatic Transfer Distance and Overstory Retention on Douglas-Fir Seedling Survival and Height Growth in Interior British Columbia

The future climatic niche of interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca [Mirb.] Franco) is expected to have little spatial overlap with its current range due to climate change. The resulting misalignment of the climatic niche and species distribution is expected to result in many forests becoming maladapted in their current location, thus increasing vulnerability to disturbance and reducing productivity. This novel study examined the individual and interactive effects of climatic transfer distance and silviculture systems on planted 3-year-old Douglas-fir seedlings across the natural range of interior Douglas-fir in British Columbia. Several climatic transfer distance variables were considered, and the silviculture systems tested comprised the following gradients of tree retention: 0% retention (clearcut), 10% dispersed retention (seed-tree), 30% aggregate retention, and 60% aggregate retention with thinning from below. Using linear mixed effect models, we found that survival and height were positively correlated with movements of seedlings to warmer, wetter, and more humid climates. Moisture availability had a stronger influence than temperature, indicating that seedlings transferred to warmer but more arid climates would experience decreased survival and height. Where seedlings were transferred to climates with greater frost frequency or decreased humidity, greater retention of overstory trees improved survival and height. Conversely, movements to more favorable climatic conditions (warmer and wetter) resulted in improved survival and height where overstory retention was low. Our findings suggest that genetic reshuffling of populations through assisted migration could benefit from overstory retention where stressful climatic conditions due to aridity or increased frost frequency occur.