基于升温月的预估高估了珊瑚白化和死亡率

IF 16.1 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Nature Geoscience Pub Date : 2025-01-23 DOI:10.1038/s41561-024-01635-7

Robert A. B. Mason, Yves-Marie Bozec, Peter J. Mumby

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引用次数: 0

摘要

对珊瑚礁未来有影响的预估使用了温度加热月，这是经过充分验证的温度加热周指数的月度重新制定。在这里，我们表明使用这两个指标的热应力预测存在很大差异，当使用度加热月时，在许多气候模型下预测的额外白化率为33-1,584%。2030-2050年的珊瑚覆盖预估在这两个指标之间相差2倍，降低了目前使用的温度加热月预测的可信度。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Coral bleaching and mortality overestimated in projections based on Degree Heating Months

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Coral bleaching and mortality overestimated in projections based on Degree Heating Months

Influential projections of coral reef futures have used Degree Heating Months—a monthly reformulation of the well-validated Degree Heating Weeks index. Here we show that heat stress predictions using the 2 metrics differ substantially, with 33–1,584% additional bleaching predicted under many climate models when using Degree Heating Months. Coral cover projections for 2030–2050 differ by a factor of 2 between the 2 metrics, reducing the credibility of forecasts that use Degree Heating Months as it is currently applied. Coral bleaching and mortality are substantially overestimated in most model projections that are based on Degree Heating Months instead of Degree Heating Weeks, calling into question results generated using Degree Heating Months.

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来源期刊

Nature Geoscience 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

26.70

自引率

1.60%

发文量

187

审稿时长

3.3 months

期刊介绍： Nature Geoscience is a monthly interdisciplinary journal that gathers top-tier research spanning Earth Sciences and related fields. The journal covers all geoscience disciplines, including fieldwork, modeling, and theoretical studies. Topics include atmospheric science, biogeochemistry, climate science, geobiology, geochemistry, geoinformatics, remote sensing, geology, geomagnetism, paleomagnetism, geomorphology, geophysics, glaciology, hydrology, limnology, mineralogy, oceanography, paleontology, paleoclimatology, paleoceanography, petrology, planetary science, seismology, space physics, tectonics, and volcanology. Nature Geoscience upholds its commitment to publishing significant, high-quality Earth Sciences research through fair, rapid, and rigorous peer review, overseen by a team of full-time professional editors.