Sameh Alagha, Serkan Mola, Mehmet Çeber, Alp Yıldırım
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The discriminative performance of the ACEF scores and the novel nomogram model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of the 511 patients, 169 (33.1%) developed PoAF. The ACEF I and II scores showed moderate discriminative ability (AUC = 0.642 and 0.647, respectively), with no significant difference between them (p = 0.787). Logistic regression analyses identified age, preoperative hemoglobin levels, emergency procedure, chronic kidney disease or need for dialysis, preoperative β-blocker use, preoperative angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker use, inotrope requirement, postoperative stroke, and postoperative potassium levels as independent predictors of PoAF. The novel nomogram model demonstrated greater predictive ability than the ACEF scores (AUC = 0.742, p < 0.001).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>ACEF scores could be helpful risk stratification tools for PoAF after on-pump CABG procedures. Additional validation studies are required to confirm their clinical utility in diverse surgical procedures and patient populations.</p><p><strong>Objectives: </strong>This study evaluated the predictive performance of age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) I and II scores for the development of postoperative atrial fibrillation (PoAF) after isolated on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery and compared them with a novel nomogram model developed for PoAF prediction.</p><p><strong>Subjects and methods: </strong>This retrospective multicenter study involved 511 patients who underwent isolated on-pump CABG. Their ACEF scores were calculated, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a nomogram model. The discriminative performance of the ACEF scores and the novel nomogram model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of the 511 patients, 169 (33.1%) developed PoAF. The ACEF I and II scores showed moderate discriminative ability (AUC = 0.642 and 0.647, respectively), with no significant difference between them (p = 0.787). Logistic regression analyses identified age, preoperative hemoglobin levels, emergency procedure, chronic kidney disease or need for dialysis, preoperative β-blocker use, preoperative angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker use, inotrope requirement, postoperative stroke, and postoperative potassium levels as independent predictors of PoAF. The novel nomogram model demonstrated greater predictive ability than the ACEF scores (AUC = 0.742, p < 0.001).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>ACEF scores could be helpful risk stratification tools for PoAF after on-pump CABG procedures. Additional validation studies are required to confirm their clinical utility in diverse surgical procedures and patient populations.</p>","PeriodicalId":18455,"journal":{"name":"Medical Principles and Practice","volume":" ","pages":"162-171"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11936453/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predictive Value of Age, Creatinine, and Ejection Fraction I and II Scores for Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Isolated On-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Surgery: A Multicenter Retrospective Study.\",\"authors\":\"Sameh Alagha, Serkan Mola, Mehmet Çeber, Alp Yıldırım\",\"doi\":\"10.1159/000543188\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>This study evaluated the predictive performance of age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) I and II scores for the development of postoperative atrial fibrillation (PoAF) after isolated on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery and compared them with a novel nomogram model developed for PoAF prediction.</p><p><strong>Subjects and methods: </strong>This retrospective multicenter study involved 511 patients who underwent isolated on-pump CABG. Their ACEF scores were calculated, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a nomogram model. The discriminative performance of the ACEF scores and the novel nomogram model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of the 511 patients, 169 (33.1%) developed PoAF. The ACEF I and II scores showed moderate discriminative ability (AUC = 0.642 and 0.647, respectively), with no significant difference between them (p = 0.787). Logistic regression analyses identified age, preoperative hemoglobin levels, emergency procedure, chronic kidney disease or need for dialysis, preoperative β-blocker use, preoperative angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker use, inotrope requirement, postoperative stroke, and postoperative potassium levels as independent predictors of PoAF. The novel nomogram model demonstrated greater predictive ability than the ACEF scores (AUC = 0.742, p < 0.001).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>ACEF scores could be helpful risk stratification tools for PoAF after on-pump CABG procedures. Additional validation studies are required to confirm their clinical utility in diverse surgical procedures and patient populations.</p><p><strong>Objectives: </strong>This study evaluated the predictive performance of age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) I and II scores for the development of postoperative atrial fibrillation (PoAF) after isolated on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery and compared them with a novel nomogram model developed for PoAF prediction.</p><p><strong>Subjects and methods: </strong>This retrospective multicenter study involved 511 patients who underwent isolated on-pump CABG. Their ACEF scores were calculated, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a nomogram model. The discriminative performance of the ACEF scores and the novel nomogram model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of the 511 patients, 169 (33.1%) developed PoAF. The ACEF I and II scores showed moderate discriminative ability (AUC = 0.642 and 0.647, respectively), with no significant difference between them (p = 0.787). Logistic regression analyses identified age, preoperative hemoglobin levels, emergency procedure, chronic kidney disease or need for dialysis, preoperative β-blocker use, preoperative angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker use, inotrope requirement, postoperative stroke, and postoperative potassium levels as independent predictors of PoAF. The novel nomogram model demonstrated greater predictive ability than the ACEF scores (AUC = 0.742, p < 0.001).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>ACEF scores could be helpful risk stratification tools for PoAF after on-pump CABG procedures. Additional validation studies are required to confirm their clinical utility in diverse surgical procedures and patient populations.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":18455,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Medical Principles and Practice\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"162-171\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11936453/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Medical Principles and Practice\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1159/000543188\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/1/17 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Medical Principles and Practice","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1159/000543188","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/1/17 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
目的:本研究评估年龄、肌酐和射血分数(ACEF) I和II评分对孤立无泵冠状动脉旁路移植术(CABG)术后房颤(PoAF)发生的预测作用,并将其与用于预测PoAF的新型nomogram模型进行比较。对象和方法:这项回顾性多中心研究包括511例接受孤立无泵搭桥的患者。计算患者的ACEF评分,并进行多因素logistic回归分析,建立nomogram模型。使用受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)评估ACEF评分和新nomogram模型的判别性能。结果:511例患者中,169例(33.1%)发生PoAF。ACEF I和II评分为中等判别能力(AUC分别为0.642和0.647),两组间差异无统计学意义(p = 0.787)。Logistic回归分析发现,年龄、术前血红蛋白水平、急诊手术、慢性肾脏疾病或透析需求、术前β受体阻滞剂使用、术前血管紧张素转换酶抑制剂或血管紧张素受体阻滞剂使用、肌力需求、术后卒中和术后钾水平是PoAF的独立预测因素。该模型的预测能力优于ACEF评分(AUC = 0.742, p < 0.001)。结论:ACEF评分可作为无泵冠脉搭桥术后PoAF的风险分层工具。需要更多的验证研究来证实它们在不同外科手术和患者群体中的临床应用。
Predictive Value of Age, Creatinine, and Ejection Fraction I and II Scores for Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Isolated On-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Surgery: A Multicenter Retrospective Study.
Objectives: This study evaluated the predictive performance of age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) I and II scores for the development of postoperative atrial fibrillation (PoAF) after isolated on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery and compared them with a novel nomogram model developed for PoAF prediction.
Subjects and methods: This retrospective multicenter study involved 511 patients who underwent isolated on-pump CABG. Their ACEF scores were calculated, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a nomogram model. The discriminative performance of the ACEF scores and the novel nomogram model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
Results: Of the 511 patients, 169 (33.1%) developed PoAF. The ACEF I and II scores showed moderate discriminative ability (AUC = 0.642 and 0.647, respectively), with no significant difference between them (p = 0.787). Logistic regression analyses identified age, preoperative hemoglobin levels, emergency procedure, chronic kidney disease or need for dialysis, preoperative β-blocker use, preoperative angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker use, inotrope requirement, postoperative stroke, and postoperative potassium levels as independent predictors of PoAF. The novel nomogram model demonstrated greater predictive ability than the ACEF scores (AUC = 0.742, p < 0.001).
Conclusion: ACEF scores could be helpful risk stratification tools for PoAF after on-pump CABG procedures. Additional validation studies are required to confirm their clinical utility in diverse surgical procedures and patient populations.
Objectives: This study evaluated the predictive performance of age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) I and II scores for the development of postoperative atrial fibrillation (PoAF) after isolated on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery and compared them with a novel nomogram model developed for PoAF prediction.
Subjects and methods: This retrospective multicenter study involved 511 patients who underwent isolated on-pump CABG. Their ACEF scores were calculated, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a nomogram model. The discriminative performance of the ACEF scores and the novel nomogram model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
Results: Of the 511 patients, 169 (33.1%) developed PoAF. The ACEF I and II scores showed moderate discriminative ability (AUC = 0.642 and 0.647, respectively), with no significant difference between them (p = 0.787). Logistic regression analyses identified age, preoperative hemoglobin levels, emergency procedure, chronic kidney disease or need for dialysis, preoperative β-blocker use, preoperative angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker use, inotrope requirement, postoperative stroke, and postoperative potassium levels as independent predictors of PoAF. The novel nomogram model demonstrated greater predictive ability than the ACEF scores (AUC = 0.742, p < 0.001).
Conclusion: ACEF scores could be helpful risk stratification tools for PoAF after on-pump CABG procedures. Additional validation studies are required to confirm their clinical utility in diverse surgical procedures and patient populations.
期刊介绍:
''Medical Principles and Practice'', as the journal of the Health Sciences Centre, Kuwait University, aims to be a publication of international repute that will be a medium for dissemination and exchange of scientific knowledge in the health sciences.