定义精确模拟SARS-CoV-2病毒动力学的关键条件:患者特征和数据收集方案。

IF 6.8 3区 医学 Q1 VIROLOGY
Hoong Kai Chua, Ananya Singh, Yuqian Wang, Yun Shan Goh, Conrad En Zuo Chan, Jean-Marc Chavatte, Raymond Valentine Tzer Pin Lin, Yvonne C F Su, Marco Ajelli, Po Ying Chia, Sean W X Ong, David Chien Lye, Barnaby E Young, Keisuke Ejima
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引用次数: 0

摘要

病毒动力学的数学模型对于理解感染轨迹至关重要。然而,严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2)病毒载量数据通常包括有限的稀疏观察,且具有显著的异质性。本研究旨在:(1)了解患者特征对形成时间病毒载量轨迹的影响;(2)建立数据收集协议(DCP)以可靠地重建个体病毒载量轨迹。我们收集了来自新加坡243名患者(2021-2022)的SARS-CoV-2 Delta和Omicron变体的纵向病毒载量数据。病毒动力学模型使用患者的年龄,症状存在和疫苗接种状态进行校准。我们使用线性回归模型访问了这些患者特征与病毒动力学方面之间的关联。我们通过改变患者数量、测试频率和测试间隔来评估不同模拟dcp下病毒载量轨迹估计的准确性。由于较低的感染率和细胞死亡率,未接种疫苗的老年人的病毒脱落持续时间较长。在年龄较大、有症状和接种疫苗的个体中发现了更高的病毒载量峰值,而在年轻接种疫苗的个体中发现了更早的峰值。出现症状和接种疫苗可缩短从感染到诊断的时间。为了准确地估计病毒动力学,需要更频繁的检测,更长的检测间隔和更大的患者样本。对于500名患者,分别进行21天的随访,每3天测量一次,和8天的随访,每天测量一次,对于Delta和Omicron变体来说是最佳的。患者特征显著影响病毒动力学。我们的分析方法和推荐的dcp可以加强对SARS-CoV-2以外新出现病原体的准备和应对。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Defining the Critical Requisites for Accurate Simulation of SARS-CoV-2 Viral Dynamics: Patient Characteristics and Data Collection Protocol.

Mathematical models of viral dynamics are crucial in understanding infection trajectories. However, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load data often includes limited sparse observations with significant heterogeneity. This study aims to: (1) understand the impact of patient characteristics in shaping the temporal viral load trajectory and (2) establish a data collection protocol (DCP) to reliably reconstruct individual viral load trajectories. We collected longitudinal viral load data for SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants from 243 patients in Singapore (2021-2022). A viral dynamics model was calibrated using patients' age, symptom presence, and vaccination status. We accessed associations between these patient characteristics and aspects of viral dynamics using linear regression models. We evaluated the accuracy of viral load trajectory estimation under different simulated DCPs by varying patient numbers, test frequencies, and test intervals. Older unvaccinated individuals had a longer viral shedding duration due to lower infection and cell death rates. Higher peak viral loads were found in older, symptomatic, and vaccinated individuals, with earlier peaks in younger vaccinated individuals. Symptom presence and vaccination resulted in a shorter time from infection to diagnosis. To accurately estimate viral dynamics, more frequent tests, longer test intervals, and larger patient samples are required. For 500 patients, a 21-day follow-up with measurements every 3 days and an 8-day follow-up with daily measurements was optimal for the Delta and Omicron variants, respectively. Patient characteristics significantly impacted viral dynamics. Our analytic approach and recommended DCPs can enhance preparedness and response to emerging pathogens beyond SARS-CoV-2.

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来源期刊
Journal of Medical Virology
Journal of Medical Virology 医学-病毒学
CiteScore
23.20
自引率
2.40%
发文量
777
审稿时长
1 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Medical Virology focuses on publishing original scientific papers on both basic and applied research related to viruses that affect humans. The journal publishes reports covering a wide range of topics, including the characterization, diagnosis, epidemiology, immunology, and pathogenesis of human virus infections. It also includes studies on virus morphology, genetics, replication, and interactions with host cells. The intended readership of the journal includes virologists, microbiologists, immunologists, infectious disease specialists, diagnostic laboratory technologists, epidemiologists, hematologists, and cell biologists. The Journal of Medical Virology is indexed and abstracted in various databases, including Abstracts in Anthropology (Sage), CABI, AgBiotech News & Information, National Agricultural Library, Biological Abstracts, Embase, Global Health, Web of Science, Veterinary Bulletin, and others.
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