Examination of spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emission and influencing factors in territorial spatial functional areas: a case study of the mountainous city Chongqing.

The rapid development of China's economy and the acceleration of the urbanization process have led to a significant increase in carbon emissions, and more effective policies are urgently needed. As the first city in China to be approved for the overall master plan of territorial space, Chongqing is facing new opportunities in urban construction. This research constructed a classification system of the territorial space functional areas in Chongqing (CQ-TSFA) and matched the corresponding carbon emission and carbon sequestration projects. Under this classification system, the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of its carbon emissions have been examined, and the main influencing factors have been investigated based on the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model. This study draws the following conclusions: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the carbon emissions of CQ-TSFA increased from 48.87 million tons to 148.05 million tons; (2) the main expansion areas of urban living sub-areas are the central urban area and the vicinity of the seats of various district and county governments. The main expansion areas of the urban production sub-areas are the edges of the central urban area around the Yangtze River Basin within Chongqing, including many industrial parks; and (3) the contributions to carbon emissions in descending order are economic development effect, carbon emission intensity of CQ-TSFA, and population size effect, and the utilization rate of CQ-TSFA plays a strong inhibitory role. Finally, based on these conclusions, this article puts forward some policy suggestions to address the challenges of carbon emissions to provide references for promoting the sustainable development of Chongqing and the whole country.