Oropharyngeal cancer incidence and trends in Brazil.

Background: Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) incidence is rising globally, predominantly in high-income countries due to human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. However, further data on OPC incidence in Brazil is needed. The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence, trends, and predictions of OPC in Brazilian population-based cancer registries (PBCRs) by period, sex, and topography.

Methods: Data on OPC were collected from PBCRs (1988-2020). Age-standardized rates were calculated from 2000 onwards, using the 2010 Brazilian census and world standard population. Annual average percent change was analyzed using the Joinpoint Regression Model. Predictions up to 2034 were made using the Nordpred program and the age-period-cohort model.

Results: A total of 17,980 OPC cases were recorded across 30 PBCRs (1988-2020). Most cases involved males (81.58%) aged 55-59 years (17.06%). The oropharynx NOS (not otherwise specified) (40.58%), base of the tongue (24.98%), and tonsils (22.52%) were the sites most affected. The highest incidence rates were found in the Southeastern and Southern regions (3.1 to 9.4/100,000). Incidence trends increased for 10 PBCR regions in males and six regions in females. Predictions up until 2034 indicate decreasing trends for females and increasing trends for males in the North and South of Brazil.

Conclusions: The incidence of OPC in Brazil differs among regions, with higher rates observed in the South and Southeast. The prevalence of the HPV-attributable fraction for OPC is unknown.

Impact: Analysis of OPC incidence rates and regional trends aims to better understand the epidemiology of this malignancy in the Brazilian population.