Oropharyngeal Cancer Incidence and Trends in Brazil.

Background: Oropharyngeal cancer incidence is rising globally, predominantly in high-income countries, because of human papillomavirus infection. However, further data on oropharyngeal cancer incidence in Brazil is needed. The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence, trends, and predictions of oropharyngeal cancer in Brazilian population-based cancer registries (PBCR) by period, sex, and topography.

Methods: Data on oropharyngeal cancer were collected from PBCRs (1988-2020). Age-standardized rates were calculated from 2000 onward using the 2010 Brazilian census and world standard population. Annual average percent change was analyzed using the joinpoint regression model. Predictions up to 2034 were made using the Nordpred program and the age-period-cohort model.

Results: A total of 17,980 oropharyngeal cancer cases were recorded across 30 PBCRs (1988-2020). Most cases involved males (81.58%) ages 55 to 59 years (17.06%). The oropharynx not otherwise specified (40.58%), base of the tongue (24.98%), and tonsils (22.52%) were the sites most affected. The highest incidence rates were found in the southeastern and southern regions (3.1-9.4/100,000). Incidence trends increased for 10 PBCR regions in males and 6 regions in females. Predictions up until 2034 indicate decreasing trends for females and increasing trends for males in the north and south of Brazil.

Conclusions: The incidence of oropharyngeal cancer in Brazil differs among regions, with higher rates observed in the south and southeast. The prevalence of the human papillomavirus-attributable fraction for oropharyngeal cancer is unknown.

Impact: Analysis of oropharyngeal cancer incidence rates and regional trends aims to better understand the epidemiology of this malignancy in the Brazilian population.