The contribution of shipping to the emission of water and air pollutants in the northern Adriatic Sea - current and future scenarios

Marine pollution management requires identifying all sources of contaminants, yet shipping's role in marine contamination remains unexplored. To address this gap, we investigated shipping contribution to water and air pollutant loads in the Northern Adriatic Sea in 2018 and under two future scenarios. The approach integrated (i) modelled data of shipping-related emissions, (ii) load from tributaries, and (iii) land-based emissions to the atmosphere. The results showed that shipping significantly contributes to copper, zinc (from antifouling paints), nitrogen (from sewage and food waste), phenanthrene, and naphthalene (from scrubbers and bilge water) loads. Under an increased shipping traffic scenario by 2050, scrubber use reduces atmospheric emissions but increases water pollutants, while alternative fuels reduce air contaminants emission with no significant increase in water pollution. This study sets the foundation to apply water and air quality models to identify areas of concern and assess the environmental impacts of future shipping emission control strategies.