The prognostic value of anti-gp210 and anti-centromere antibodies in patients with primary biliary cholangitis: Enhancing the prognostic utility on the GLOBE scoring system.

Background: Positivity for anti-gp210 and anti-centromeric antibodies (ACA) in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) have been associated with the progression of liver failure and portal hypertension (PH), respectively. The value of combining risk autoantibody assessments with prognostic scoring systems in improving risk assessment in patients with PBC remains unclear.

Aims: To investigate the prognostic significance of various combinations of anti-gp210 and ACA statuses and their enhancing the prognostic utility on the GLOBE scoring system.

Methods: Stepwise Cox regression was used to estimate the relationship between anti-gp210 antibodies or ACA and liver transplant (LT)-free survival. The GLOBE scoring system was used to stratify the patients.

Results: A total of 1412 patients with confirmed PBC were included in the study. The anti-gp210+ status was a significant risk factor for LT/liver-related death, whereas the ACA+ status was a significant risk factor for variceal bleeding (P = 0.002 and 0.007, respectively). The anti-gp210 + ACA + status was a risk indicator for the entire cohort independent of the GLOBE score (P = 0.001, hazard ratio [HR]: 2.649, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.492-4.703) and liver stiffness measurements (LSM; P = 0.039, HR: 4.969, 95 % CI: 1.088-22.692). A significant difference was observed in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between the fitted scoring model (consisting of the GLOBE score, anti-gp210 + ACA+ status, and albumin level) and the GLOBE scoring system alone (P = 0.034). When enrolled patients were classified as high-, medium-, and low-risk by the GLOBE scoring system (1.8 and 0.5), the anti-gp210 + ACA+ status was associated with a 1.6- and 3.3-fold higher 5-year incidence of LT/liver-related death in the high- and medium-risk groups, respectively, in comparison with the anti-gp210 + ACA- cases. The anti-gp210 + ACA+ status was also a risk indicator for the presentation of the hepatic failure phenotype in comparison with the anti-gp210- status (P = 0.007, odds ratio [OR]: 6.419, 95 % CI: 1.645-25.042), and the presentation of PH phenotype in comparison with the anti-ACA- status (OR: 3.473, 95 % CI: 1.328-9.018, P = 0.011).

Conclusion: The anti-gp210 + ACA+ status was an independent prognostic marker that could predict a poor prognosis in patients with PBC at diagnosis and may further optimise risk stratification in combination with the GLOBE scoring system.