Construction of a prognostic model for gastric cancer based on immune infiltration and microenvironment, and exploration of MEF2C gene function.

Background: Advanced gastric cancer (GC) exhibits a high recurrence rate and a dismal prognosis. Myocyte enhancer factor 2c (MEF2C) was found to contribute to the development of various types of cancer. Therefore, our aim is to develop a prognostic model that predicts the prognosis of GC patients and initially explore the role of MEF2C in immunotherapy for GC.

Methods: Transcriptome sequence data of GC was obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) and PRJEB25780 cohort for subsequent immune infiltration analysis, immune microenvironment analysis, consensus clustering analysis and feature selection for definition and classification of gene M and N. Principal component analysis (PCA) modeling was performed based on gene M and N for the calculation of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) Score. Then, a Nomogram was constructed and evaluated for predicting the prognosis of GC patients, based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression. Functional enrichment analysis was performed to initially investigate the potential biological mechanisms. Through Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer (GDSC) dataset, the estimated IC₅₀ values of several chemotherapeutic drugs were calculated. Tumor-related transcription factors (TFs) were retrieved from the Cistrome Cancer database and utilized our model to screen these TFs, and weighted correlation network analysis (WGCNA) was performed to identify transcription factors strongly associated with immunotherapy in GC. Finally, 10 patients with advanced GC were enrolled from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, including paired tumor tissues, paracancerous tissues and peritoneal metastases, for preparing sequencing library, in order to perform external validation.

Results: Lower ICI Score was correlated with improved prognosis in both the training and validation cohorts. First, lower mutant-allele tumor heterogeneity (MATH) was associated with lower ICI Score, and those GC patients with lower MATH and lower ICI Score had the best prognosis. Second, regardless of the T or N staging, the low ICI Score group had significantly higher overall survival (OS) compared to the high ICI Score group. For its mechanisms, consistently, for Camptothecin, Doxorubicin, Mitomycin, Docetaxel, Cisplatin, Vinblastine, Sorafenib and Paclitaxel, all of the IC₅₀ values were significantly lower in the low ICI Score group compared to the high ICI Score group. As a result, based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression, ICI Score was considered to be an independent prognostic factor for GC. And our Nomogram showed good agreement between predicted and actual probabilities. Based on CIBERSORT deconvolution analysis, there was difference of immune cell composition found between high and low ICI Score groups, probably affecting the efficacy of immunotherapy. Then, MEF2C, a tumor-related transcription factor, was screened out by WGCNA analysis. Higher MEF2C expression is significantly correlated with a worse OS. Moreover, its higher expression is also negatively correlated with tumor mutation burden (TMB) and microsatellite instability (MSI), but positively correlated with several immunosuppressive molecules, indicating MEF2C may exert its influence on tumor development by upregulating immunosuppressive molecules. Finally, based on transcriptome sequencing data on 10 paired tumor tissues from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, MEF2C expression was significantly lower in paracancerous tissues compared to tumor tissues and peritoneal metastases, and it was also lower in tumor tissues compared to peritoneal metastases, indicating a potential positive association between MEF2C expression and tumor invasiveness.

Conclusions: Our prognostic model can effectively predict outcomes and facilitate stratification GC patients, offering valuable insights for clinical decision-making. The identified transcription factor MEF2C can serve as a biomarker for assessing the efficacy of immunotherapy for GC.