Asymmetric sensitivity of boreal forest resilience to forest gain and loss

Forest gains and losses may have unequal effects on forest resilience, particularly given their distinct temporal dynamics. Here, we quantify the sensitivities of boreal forest resilience to forest cover gain and loss using a resilience indicator derived from the temporal autocorrelation (TAC) of the kernel normalized difference vegetation index from 2000 to 2020. Our findings unveil pronounced asymmetric sensitivities, with stronger sensitivity to forest loss (−4.26 ± 0.14 × 10⁻³; TAC increase per 1% forest cover loss) than to forest gain (−1.65 ± 0.12 × 10⁻³; TAC decrease per 1% forest cover gain). Locally, ~73% of the boreal forest exhibits negative sensitivity, indicating enhanced resilience with forest cover gain and vice versa, especially in intact forests compared to managed ones. This sensitivity is affected by various trajectories in forest cover change, stemming primarily from temporal asynchrony in the recovery rates of various ecosystem functions. The observed asymmetry underscores the importance of prioritizing forest conservation over reactive management strategies following losses, ultimately contributing to more sustainable forest management practices.