Evaluating crash severity at highway-rail grade crossings using an analytic hierarchy process-based hazard index model

Due to the substantial mass disparity between trains and highway vehicles, crashes at Highway-Rail Grade Crossings (HRGCs) are often severe. Therefore, it is essential to develop systematic frameworks for allocating federal and state funds to improve safety at the highest-risk grade crossings. Common techniques for hazard prioritization at HRGCs include the hazard index and the collision prediction formula. A few research projects and state departments of transportation (DOTs) have employed hybrid models that integrate crash hazard indices with prediction models to create comprehensive safety decision-making frameworks. In addition, ranking grade crossings based on their forecasted crash severity likelihood remains largely unexplored, partly due to the complexity of integrating crash severity outputs with hazard indices. This research introduces a new mixed hazard ranking model, the Analytic Hierarchy Process Hazard Index (AHP-HI), which serves as a decision-making tool for ranking grade crossings based on their potential for crash severity. The AHP-HI model combines the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the competing risk model (CRM), a prediction model that estimates the likelihood of crash severity for crossings. Risk analysis using the AHP-HI model categorizes public grade crossings in North Dakota into four risk levels, with 4.73% of the crossings identified as high risk.