Trends in cutaneous melanoma mortality and incidence in European Union 15+ countries between 1990 and 2019.

Background: Cutaneous melanoma (CM) is the leading cause of skin cancer mortality with associated high healthcare costs. Up-to-date reporting of epidemiological trends for CM is required to project future trends, assess the burden of disease and aid evaluation of new diagnostic, therapeutic and preventative strategies.

Objectives: To describe the trends in CM mortality, incidence, mortality-to-incidence indices (MIIs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over the last three decades.

Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database between 1990 and 2019 was performed. Nineteen high-income countries with similar health expenditure and classified as having high-quality mortality data including the United Kingdom, the United States, Australia and selected European Union countries were included. Annual age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) and DALYs for each country were extracted. Mortality-to-incidence indexes were calculated by dividing the ASDR by the ASIR. Trends were described using Joinpoint regression analysis.

Results: Almost all countries demonstrated increasing ASDR in males over the observation period with greatest percentage increase in Greece (+87%), and there was greater heterogeneity between countries in females. CM mortality was greater for males than females in all countries. Most recent Joinpoint analysis shows significantly decreasing mortality in all countries except the United Kingdom (+0.5% males between 2007 and 2019, +0.1% females between 2002 and 2019). Incidence rates increased in all countries, with evidence of plateau from 2015 onwards. While MIIs cannot be used as a proxy for survival, statistically significant decreases in MII were observed in all countries. Overall, DALYs remained static.

Conclusions: Over the past 30 years, CM mortality and incidence has increased in most EU15+ countries. There is evidence that in recent years, CM mortality is decreasing. The burden of disease as assessed using DALYs has remained mostly unchanged. Future work should not solely focus on expensive innovative therapies, but also on optimizing primary prevention.