钢管道腐蚀失效的贝叶斯评估。

IF 2.1 3区物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Entropy Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI:10.3390/e26121111

Fabrizio Ruggeri, Enrico Cagno, Franco Caron, Mauro Mancini, Antonio Pievatolo

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引用次数: 0

摘要

利用某城市配气管网的实际失效数据，研究了不同腐蚀类型下钢管道气体泄漏的概率。考虑了网络的设计和维护，在第一种情况下识别和估计（在贝叶斯框架中）一个基本多项式模型，在第二种情况下识别和估计一个更复杂的非齐次泊松过程。特别注意专家意见的征求。我们得出的结论是，腐蚀过程的行为因腐蚀类型而异，在大多数情况下，应安装阴极保护管道。

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Bayesian Assessment of Corrosion-Related Failures in Steel Pipelines.

The probability of gas escapes from steel pipelines due to different types of corrosion is studied with real failure data from an urban gas distribution network. Both the design and maintenance of the network are considered, identifying and estimating (in a Bayesian framework) an elementary multinomial model in the first case, and a more sophisticated non-homogeneous Poisson process in the second case. Special attention is paid to the elicitation of the experts' opinions. We conclude that the corrosion process behaves quite differently depending on the type of corrosion, and that, in most cases, cathodically protected pipes should be installed.

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来源期刊

Entropy PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

11.10%

发文量

1580

审稿时长

21.05 days

期刊介绍： Entropy (ISSN 1099-4300), an international and interdisciplinary journal of entropy and information studies, publishes reviews, regular research papers and short notes. Our aim is to encourage scientists to publish as much as possible their theoretical and experimental details. There is no restriction on the length of the papers. If there are computation and the experiment, the details must be provided so that the results can be reproduced.