Distinct patterns of volcano deformation for hot and cold magmatic systems

Volcano deformation can be detected over timescales from seconds to decades, offering valuable insights for magma dynamics. However, these signals are shaped by the long-term evolution of magmatic systems, a coupling that remains poorly understood. Here we integrate thermal models of crustal-scale magmatism with thermo-mechanical simulations of ground deformation. This allows us to determine the influence of magmatic flux over 10⁵–10⁶ years on viscoelastic deformation spanning a 10-year observation period. Our results reveal a coupling between surface deformation and the thermal evolution of magma systems, modulated by magma flux and system lifespan. Relatively cold magma systems exhibit cycles of uplift and subsidence, while comparatively hot plumbing systems experience solely uplift. These findings align with geophysical observations from caldera systems, emphasizing the potential of surface deformation measurements as tool for deciphering the state and architecture of magmatic systems. Considering long-term magmatic system evolution is imperative for accurate interpretation of volcanic unrest.