The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Running of the Spectral Index

The NANOGrav 15 yr data provide compelling evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background at nanohertz frequencies. The simplest model-independent approach to characterizing the frequency spectrum of this signal consists of a simple power-law fit involving two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index γ. In this Letter, we consider the next logical step beyond this minimal spectral model, allowing for a running (i.e., logarithmic frequency dependence) of the spectral index, . We fit this running-power-law (RPL) model to the NANOGrav 15 yr data and perform a Bayesian model comparison with the minimal constant-power-law (CPL) model, which results in a 95% credible interval for the parameter β consistent with no running, , and an inconclusive Bayes factor, . We thus conclude that, at present, the minimal CPL model still suffices to adequately describe the NANOGrav signal; however, future data sets may well lead to a measurement of nonzero β. Finally, we interpret the RPL model as a description of primordial GWs generated during cosmic inflation, which allows us to combine our results with upper limits from Big Bang nucleosynthesis, the cosmic microwave background, and LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA.