Herman Trazias , Maranya Mayengo , Jacob Irunde , Moatlhodi Kgosimore
{"title":"温度和pH值影响人类和奶牛沙门氏菌病的动力学模型。","authors":"Herman Trazias , Maranya Mayengo , Jacob Irunde , Moatlhodi Kgosimore","doi":"10.1016/j.rvsc.2024.105514","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Approximately 20 million cases and 0.15 million human fatalities worldwide each year are caused by Salmonellosis. A mechanistic compartmental model based on ordinary differential equations is proposed to evaluate the effects of temperature and pH on the transmission dynamics of Salmonellosis. The transmission potential of the disease in areas with temperature and pH stresses is examined. The next-generation matrix method is applied to compute the temperature-pH-dependent reproduction number <span><math><msub><mi>ℛ</mi><mi>PT</mi></msub></math></span>. The dynamical regimes of the system are examined using Lyapunov stability theory and backward bifurcation analysis. The uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis are examined using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) methods. The numerical simulations of the proposed model under favorable and unfavorable temperatures are performed with a <span><math><mn>95</mn><mo>%</mo></math></span> confidence interval (CI) for the reliability assessment of the model parameters. The analysis shows that the ingestion rates of <em>Salmonella enterica</em> subsp. <em>enterica</em> serovar Typhimurium bacteria in humans and dairy cattle, human-to-human transmission rate, cattle-to-cattle transmission rate, human shedding rate, dairy cattle shedding rate, and the rate of producing contaminated dairy products are directly proportional to the number of infected humans and infected dairy cattle. The temperature ranges of <span><math><msup><mn>10</mn><mn>0</mn></msup><mspace></mspace><mi>C</mi><mo>−</mo><msup><mn>20</mn><mn>0</mn></msup><mspace></mspace><mi>C</mi></math></span> and <span><math><msup><mn>30</mn><mn>0</mn></msup><mspace></mspace><mi>C</mi><mo>−</mo><msup><mn>40</mn><mn>0</mn></msup><mspace></mspace><mi>C</mi></math></span> and pHs greater than 3.8 have a significant effect on the dynamics of Salmonellosis. In order to eliminate Salmonellosis, the study recommends treating natural water bodies using the recommended chemical disinfectants during summer seasons and in areas with temperature ranges of <span><math><msup><mn>10</mn><mn>0</mn></msup><mspace></mspace><mi>C</mi><mo>−</mo><msup><mn>20</mn><mn>0</mn></msup><mspace></mspace><mi>C</mi></math></span>, cooking food at the hottest temperatures, and storing food at the lowest temperatures for all pHs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21083,"journal":{"name":"Research in veterinary science","volume":"184 ","pages":"Article 105514"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Dynamical modeling of Salmonellosis in humans and dairy cattle with temperature and pH effects\",\"authors\":\"Herman Trazias , Maranya Mayengo , Jacob Irunde , Moatlhodi Kgosimore\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.rvsc.2024.105514\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Approximately 20 million cases and 0.15 million human fatalities worldwide each year are caused by Salmonellosis. A mechanistic compartmental model based on ordinary differential equations is proposed to evaluate the effects of temperature and pH on the transmission dynamics of Salmonellosis. The transmission potential of the disease in areas with temperature and pH stresses is examined. The next-generation matrix method is applied to compute the temperature-pH-dependent reproduction number <span><math><msub><mi>ℛ</mi><mi>PT</mi></msub></math></span>. The dynamical regimes of the system are examined using Lyapunov stability theory and backward bifurcation analysis. The uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis are examined using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) methods. The numerical simulations of the proposed model under favorable and unfavorable temperatures are performed with a <span><math><mn>95</mn><mo>%</mo></math></span> confidence interval (CI) for the reliability assessment of the model parameters. The analysis shows that the ingestion rates of <em>Salmonella enterica</em> subsp. <em>enterica</em> serovar Typhimurium bacteria in humans and dairy cattle, human-to-human transmission rate, cattle-to-cattle transmission rate, human shedding rate, dairy cattle shedding rate, and the rate of producing contaminated dairy products are directly proportional to the number of infected humans and infected dairy cattle. The temperature ranges of <span><math><msup><mn>10</mn><mn>0</mn></msup><mspace></mspace><mi>C</mi><mo>−</mo><msup><mn>20</mn><mn>0</mn></msup><mspace></mspace><mi>C</mi></math></span> and <span><math><msup><mn>30</mn><mn>0</mn></msup><mspace></mspace><mi>C</mi><mo>−</mo><msup><mn>40</mn><mn>0</mn></msup><mspace></mspace><mi>C</mi></math></span> and pHs greater than 3.8 have a significant effect on the dynamics of Salmonellosis. In order to eliminate Salmonellosis, the study recommends treating natural water bodies using the recommended chemical disinfectants during summer seasons and in areas with temperature ranges of <span><math><msup><mn>10</mn><mn>0</mn></msup><mspace></mspace><mi>C</mi><mo>−</mo><msup><mn>20</mn><mn>0</mn></msup><mspace></mspace><mi>C</mi></math></span>, cooking food at the hottest temperatures, and storing food at the lowest temperatures for all pHs.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":21083,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Research in veterinary science\",\"volume\":\"184 \",\"pages\":\"Article 105514\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-12-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Research in veterinary science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034528824003813\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"VETERINARY SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Research in veterinary science","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034528824003813","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"VETERINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Dynamical modeling of Salmonellosis in humans and dairy cattle with temperature and pH effects
Approximately 20 million cases and 0.15 million human fatalities worldwide each year are caused by Salmonellosis. A mechanistic compartmental model based on ordinary differential equations is proposed to evaluate the effects of temperature and pH on the transmission dynamics of Salmonellosis. The transmission potential of the disease in areas with temperature and pH stresses is examined. The next-generation matrix method is applied to compute the temperature-pH-dependent reproduction number . The dynamical regimes of the system are examined using Lyapunov stability theory and backward bifurcation analysis. The uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis are examined using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) methods. The numerical simulations of the proposed model under favorable and unfavorable temperatures are performed with a confidence interval (CI) for the reliability assessment of the model parameters. The analysis shows that the ingestion rates of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Typhimurium bacteria in humans and dairy cattle, human-to-human transmission rate, cattle-to-cattle transmission rate, human shedding rate, dairy cattle shedding rate, and the rate of producing contaminated dairy products are directly proportional to the number of infected humans and infected dairy cattle. The temperature ranges of and and pHs greater than 3.8 have a significant effect on the dynamics of Salmonellosis. In order to eliminate Salmonellosis, the study recommends treating natural water bodies using the recommended chemical disinfectants during summer seasons and in areas with temperature ranges of , cooking food at the hottest temperatures, and storing food at the lowest temperatures for all pHs.
期刊介绍:
Research in Veterinary Science is an International multi-disciplinary journal publishing original articles, reviews and short communications of a high scientific and ethical standard in all aspects of veterinary and biomedical research.
The primary aim of the journal is to inform veterinary and biomedical scientists of significant advances in veterinary and related research through prompt publication and dissemination. Secondly, the journal aims to provide a general multi-disciplinary forum for discussion and debate of news and issues concerning veterinary science. Thirdly, to promote the dissemination of knowledge to a broader range of professions, globally.
High quality papers on all species of animals are considered, particularly those considered to be of high scientific importance and originality, and with interdisciplinary interest. The journal encourages papers providing results that have clear implications for understanding disease pathogenesis and for the development of control measures or treatments, as well as those dealing with a comparative biomedical approach, which represents a substantial improvement to animal and human health.
Studies without a robust scientific hypothesis or that are preliminary, or of weak originality, as well as negative results, are not appropriate for the journal. Furthermore, observational approaches, case studies or field reports lacking an advancement in general knowledge do not fall within the scope of the journal.