1918年德国魏玛流感大流行的政治影响

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI:10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101648

Stefan Bauernschuster, Matthias Blum, Erik Hornung, Christoph Koenig

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引用次数: 0

摘要

1918年流感大流行如何影响魏玛德国的选举？我们将一组选举结果（1893-1933）与流感死亡率的空间异质性相结合，以评估流感大流行对各选区投票行为的影响。采用动态差异中的差异方法，我们发现流感死亡率较高的地区出现了向左翼政党的持续转变。我们认为，大流行的强度增加了公共卫生政策的重要性，促使选民奖励在卫生问题上表现出能力的政党。其他解释，如流行病导致的经济困难，现任者的惩罚或政治两极分化，都没有得到我们的研究结果的支持。

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The political effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Weimar Germany

How did the 1918 Influenza pandemic affect elections in Weimar Germany? We combine a panel of election results (1893–1933) with spatial heterogeneity in excess flu mortality to assess the pandemic’s effect on voting behavior across constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards leftwing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents, or political polarization are not supported by our findings.

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来源期刊

Explorations in Economic History Multiple-

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

8.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Explorations in Economic History provides broad coverage of the application of economic analysis to historical episodes. The journal has a tradition of innovative applications of theory and quantitative techniques, and it explores all aspects of economic change, all historical periods, all geographical locations, and all political and social systems. The journal includes papers by economists, economic historians, demographers, geographers, and sociologists. Explorations in Economic History is the only journal where you will find "Essays in Exploration." This unique department alerts economic historians to the potential in a new area of research, surveying the recent literature and then identifying the most promising issues to pursue.