不是边境危机，而是劳动力市场危机：这是经常被忽视的美国边境过境的“拉动”因素

IF 2.3 3区管理学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Pub Date : 2024-12-23 DOI:10.1002/pam.22665

Dany Bahar

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引用次数: 0

摘要

这项研究调查了近25年来（2000年至2024年）美国西南部边境口岸与劳动力市场紧张之间的联系，以就业机会与失业人口的比例来衡量。通过分析月度数据，它发现了强烈的正相关关系，表明越境人数的增加与就业机会的增加密切相关。利用不同总统任期的数据发现，无论总统属于哪个政党，这种关系在统计上都没有显著差异。研究结果表明，在一种自然的经济调整机制中，随着劳动力市场降温，交叉点自然会减少。

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Not a border crisis, but a labor market crisis: The often overlooked “pull” factor of U.S. border crossings

This study investigates the link between Southwest U.S. border crossings and labor market tightness, measured by the job openings to unemployed ratio, over nearly 25 years (2000 to 2024). Analyzing monthly data, it finds a strong positive correlation, suggesting that increased border crossings strongly align with greater job availability. Exploiting data across different presidential administrations reveals no statistically significant differences in this relationship, regardless of the President's party. The findings suggest a natural economic adjustment mechanism in which crossings naturally decrease as the labor market cools.

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来源期刊

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management Multiple-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

2.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： This journal encompasses issues and practices in policy analysis and public management. Listed among the contributors are economists, public managers, and operations researchers. Featured regularly are book reviews and a department devoted to discussing ideas and issues of importance to practitioners, researchers, and academics.