Assessing the phenology and reproductive output of loggerhead turtles in relation to climatic variables at Patara Beach, Türkiye

Loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta), being ectothermic organisms, could be especially susceptible to climate change effects, and may exhibit climate-related variation in their reproductive behaviours such as phenology, annual nest numbers, clutch size, hatching success, incubation period and sex ratio. This study investigated the reproductive phenology and outputs of loggerhead turtles and their relationships with climatic variables over a 5-year period (2019–2023) at Patara Beach, Türkiye. We found significant fluctuations in atmospheric temperature, sea surface temperature and relative humidity, and that female turtle emergences on Patara Beach could temporarily adjust their phenology in response to these minor environmental changes. We highlight the importance of understanding the impacts of phenological shifts on the ability to satisfy the conditions over the nesting season that determine reproductive output. Our statistical analyses also showed that increasing sea water temperatures and atmospheric temperatures, as well as decreasing precipitation and relative humidity, had direct and/or indirect effects on the nesting phenology and reproductive output of loggerhead turtles. The findings from this study indicate that atmospheric temperature significantly affected incubation period, hatching success rate, the number of dead embryos and the number of empty eggshells. Additionally, relative humidity had a significant impact on the incubation period and the number of empty eggshells. In this context, rising temperatures led to drier nest conditions, decreased incubation periods and increased nest temperatures, resulting in higher proportions of female offspring. In conclusion, there are still gaps in our understanding of the effects of climate change on the reproductive biology of loggerhead turtles, and more studies are needed at both the Mediterranean and global scales to better understand these effects.