Current and future climate suitability for the hazel dormouse in the UK and the impact on reintroduced populations

Reintroductions are increasingly being used as a conservation tool to restore species to areas where they once existed. Unfortunately, many reintroduction projects fail to establish viable populations. Climate suitability at release sites is thought to be important in determining reintroduction outcomes, and future climate change is an essential consideration for effective reintroduction planning. Climate change threatens species in a variety of ways, such as by impacting life history traits or causing spatial and temporal distribution mismatches of interdependent species. Hibernating species, such as the hazel dormouse (Muscardinus avellanarius), may be particularly susceptible to changes in climate. For example, milder winters may increase the number of interbout arousals during hibernation, which are energetically costly. Timing of food availability may also be impacted by changing climates, potentially causing mismatches between activity and feeding opportunities. Here, we use species distribution models (SDMs) to map climate suitability for dormice in the UK. We also investigate the impact of climate suitability on a long-running dormouse reintroduction programme, providing the first such investigation for a reintroduced mammal. We find that higher levels of current climate suitability increase the probability of reintroduction success. We find no effect of climate suitability on adult dormouse counts at reintroduction sites, but dormouse counts decline with time since reintroduction. Future projections predict that climate change may lead to more widespread climate suitability for dormice in the UK, reflecting predicted changes in seasonality, winter temperature and precipitation. Our work demonstrates the importance of understanding changing climate suitability for reintroduction planning, with potential widespread applications of SDMs for conservation projects of low-dispersing mammals.