Associations between extreme weather events and child undernutrition: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2019.

Background: Extreme weather events, or natural disasters, present a large and increasing threat to human health, infrastructure and food security, including in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where the burden of undernutrition is high. However, research about associations between natural disasters and undernutrition in early childhood is limited.

Methods: We combined anthropometric data of children aged 0-59 months from 51 Demographic and Health Surveys datasets collected from 2010 to 2019 in 30 countries in SSA with information on natural disaster events (flood, drought, other) from the Emergency Events Database database to determine disaster exposure. The analytic sample included 320 479 children. We used generalised estimating equations to predict stunting, wasting and anaemia by disaster exposure and selected covariates.

Results: Almost 20% (19.7%) of children under five were exposed to a natural disaster in the preceding year. In adjusted analysis, children exposed to at least one disaster in the preceding year had a relative risk (RR) of wasting 1.17 times higher than unexposed children (95% CI 1.12, 1.22). Adjusted models examining exposure to drought or flood consistently estimated higher risks of wasting post-disaster (drought RR 1.36, 95% CI 1.26, 1.47; flood RR 1.07, 95% CI 1.02, 1.12). RRs increased when using a 3-month exposure period. However, exposure to natural disaster was not consistently associated with significant differences in RR of stunting or anaemia.

Conclusion: Natural disasters are prevalent in SSA. Given the high risk of wasting associated with disaster exposure, policymakers should prioritise interventions to address wasting in post-disaster settings.