Christina G. Poulsen , Kristin Jesse , Bendix Carstensen , Marie Frimodt-Møller , Tine W. Hansen , Frederik Persson , Dorte Vistisen , Peter Rossing
{"title":"2000年至2020年1型糖尿病合并糖尿病肾病的预后——随时间肾功能下降的变化以及心血管疾病、肾衰竭和死亡率的发展","authors":"Christina G. Poulsen , Kristin Jesse , Bendix Carstensen , Marie Frimodt-Møller , Tine W. Hansen , Frederik Persson , Dorte Vistisen , Peter Rossing","doi":"10.1016/j.ekir.2024.09.010","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and diabetic nephropathy (DN) experience progressive kidney function decline and high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. This study explored changes in kidney function decline in new-onset DN between 2000 and 2020 and provided an updated prognosis for risk of kidney failure, CVD, and mortality.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This is a register-based cohort study in T1D with new-onset DN (severely increased albuminuria) between 2000 and 2020 at Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen, Denmark. Data were derived from electronic health records and national registers. Kidney function development was expressed as trajectories of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and measured GFR (mGFR) using mixed-effects models. The prognosis was presented in probabilities of developing complications, stratified by sex, prior CVD, and risk factor control by using simulations based on Poisson regression analysis.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The cohort comprised 591 individuals with median (interquartile range [IQR]) age at DN onset of 53 (39–66) years and 57% were male. In 283 participants, mGFR were available. Plots of eGFR trajectories illustrated tendencies toward higher eGFR in more recent years; however, this was not confirmed in mGFR trajectories. Poor risk factor control, prior CVD, and male sex impacted mortality and morbidity rates negatively. For men and women with fair risk factor control and no prior CVD, the 10-year mortality rate from onset of DN was 28% and 26%, respectively. For men and women with poor risk factor control and CVD prior to DN onset, the 10-year-mortality rate was 62% for each sex.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>The results do not support an improved prognosis for T1D and DN, emphasizing the urgent need for new therapeutic approaches.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17761,"journal":{"name":"Kidney International Reports","volume":"9 12","pages":"Pages 3403-3413"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11652190/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Prognosis for Type 1 Diabetes with Diabetic Nephropathy between 2000 and 2020 - Changes in Kidney Function Decline Over Time and Development of Cardiovascular Disease, Kidney Failure, and Mortality\",\"authors\":\"Christina G. Poulsen , Kristin Jesse , Bendix Carstensen , Marie Frimodt-Møller , Tine W. Hansen , Frederik Persson , Dorte Vistisen , Peter Rossing\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ekir.2024.09.010\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and diabetic nephropathy (DN) experience progressive kidney function decline and high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. This study explored changes in kidney function decline in new-onset DN between 2000 and 2020 and provided an updated prognosis for risk of kidney failure, CVD, and mortality.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This is a register-based cohort study in T1D with new-onset DN (severely increased albuminuria) between 2000 and 2020 at Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen, Denmark. Data were derived from electronic health records and national registers. Kidney function development was expressed as trajectories of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and measured GFR (mGFR) using mixed-effects models. The prognosis was presented in probabilities of developing complications, stratified by sex, prior CVD, and risk factor control by using simulations based on Poisson regression analysis.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The cohort comprised 591 individuals with median (interquartile range [IQR]) age at DN onset of 53 (39–66) years and 57% were male. In 283 participants, mGFR were available. Plots of eGFR trajectories illustrated tendencies toward higher eGFR in more recent years; however, this was not confirmed in mGFR trajectories. Poor risk factor control, prior CVD, and male sex impacted mortality and morbidity rates negatively. For men and women with fair risk factor control and no prior CVD, the 10-year mortality rate from onset of DN was 28% and 26%, respectively. For men and women with poor risk factor control and CVD prior to DN onset, the 10-year-mortality rate was 62% for each sex.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>The results do not support an improved prognosis for T1D and DN, emphasizing the urgent need for new therapeutic approaches.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":17761,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Kidney International Reports\",\"volume\":\"9 12\",\"pages\":\"Pages 3403-3413\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-12-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11652190/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Kidney International Reports\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468024924019387\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"UROLOGY & NEPHROLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Kidney International Reports","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468024924019387","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"UROLOGY & NEPHROLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Prognosis for Type 1 Diabetes with Diabetic Nephropathy between 2000 and 2020 - Changes in Kidney Function Decline Over Time and Development of Cardiovascular Disease, Kidney Failure, and Mortality
Introduction
Individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and diabetic nephropathy (DN) experience progressive kidney function decline and high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. This study explored changes in kidney function decline in new-onset DN between 2000 and 2020 and provided an updated prognosis for risk of kidney failure, CVD, and mortality.
Methods
This is a register-based cohort study in T1D with new-onset DN (severely increased albuminuria) between 2000 and 2020 at Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen, Denmark. Data were derived from electronic health records and national registers. Kidney function development was expressed as trajectories of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and measured GFR (mGFR) using mixed-effects models. The prognosis was presented in probabilities of developing complications, stratified by sex, prior CVD, and risk factor control by using simulations based on Poisson regression analysis.
Results
The cohort comprised 591 individuals with median (interquartile range [IQR]) age at DN onset of 53 (39–66) years and 57% were male. In 283 participants, mGFR were available. Plots of eGFR trajectories illustrated tendencies toward higher eGFR in more recent years; however, this was not confirmed in mGFR trajectories. Poor risk factor control, prior CVD, and male sex impacted mortality and morbidity rates negatively. For men and women with fair risk factor control and no prior CVD, the 10-year mortality rate from onset of DN was 28% and 26%, respectively. For men and women with poor risk factor control and CVD prior to DN onset, the 10-year-mortality rate was 62% for each sex.
Conclusion
The results do not support an improved prognosis for T1D and DN, emphasizing the urgent need for new therapeutic approaches.
期刊介绍:
Kidney International Reports, an official journal of the International Society of Nephrology, is a peer-reviewed, open access journal devoted to the publication of leading research and developments related to kidney disease. With the primary aim of contributing to improved care of patients with kidney disease, the journal will publish original clinical and select translational articles and educational content related to the pathogenesis, evaluation and management of acute and chronic kidney disease, end stage renal disease (including transplantation), acid-base, fluid and electrolyte disturbances and hypertension. Of particular interest are submissions related to clinical trials, epidemiology, systematic reviews (including meta-analyses) and outcomes research. The journal will also provide a platform for wider dissemination of national and regional guidelines as well as consensus meeting reports.