Development and validation of intravoxel incoherent motion diffusion weighted imaging-based model for preoperative distinguishing nuclear grade and survival of clear cell renal cell carcinoma complicated with venous tumor thrombus.

Objective: To assess the utility of multiparametric MRI and clinical indicators in distinguishing nuclear grade and survival of clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) complicated with venous tumor thrombus (VTT).

Materials and methods: This study included 105 and 27 patients in the training and test sets, respectively. Preoperative MRI, including intravoxel incoherent motion diffusion-weighted imaging (IVIM-DWI), was performed. Renal lesions were evaluated for IVIM-DWI metrics and conventional MRI features. All the patients had postoperative histologically proven ccRCC and VTT. An expert uropathologist reviewed all specimens to confirm the nuclear grade of the World Health Organization/ International Society of Urological Pathology (WHO/ISUP) of the tumor. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to select the preoperative imaging features and clinical indicators. The predictive ability of the logistic regression model was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method.

Results: High WHO/ISUP nuclear grade was confirmed in 69 of 105 patients (65.7%) in the training set and 19 of 27 patients (70.4%) in the test set, respectively (P = 0.647). D_{p_ROI_Low}, tumor size, serum albumin, platelet count, and lymphocyte count were independently related to high WHO/ISUP nuclear grade in the training set. The model identified high WHO/ISUP nuclear grade well, with an AUC of 0.817 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.735-0.899), a sensitivity of 70.0%, and a specificity of 77.8% in the training set. In the independent test set, the model demonstrated an AUC of 0.766 (95% CI, 0.567-0.966), a sensitivity of 79.0%, and a specificity of 75.0%. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the predicted high WHO/ISUP nuclear grade group had poorer progression-free survival than the low WHO/ISUP nuclear grade group in both the training and test sets (P = 0.001 and P = 0.021).

Conclusions: IVIM-DWI-derived parameters and clinical indicators can be used to differentiate nuclear grades and predict progression-free survival of ccRCC and VTT.