Spatiotemporal variation in population dynamics of a narrow endemic, Ranunculus austro-oreganus.

Premise: Understanding how population dynamics vary in space and time is critical for understanding the basic life history and conservation needs of a species, especially for narrow endemic species whose populations are often in similar environments and therefore at increased risk of extinction under climate change. Here, we investigated the spatial and temporal variation in population dynamics of Ranunculus austro-oreganus, a perennial buttercup endemic to fragmented prairie habitat in one county in southern Oregon.

Methods: We performed demographic surveys of three populations of R. austro-oreganus over 4 years (2015-2018). We used size-structured population models and life table response experiments to investigate vital rates driving spatiotemporal variation in population growth.

Results: Overall, R. austro-oreganus had positive or stable stochastic population growth rates, though individual vital rates and overall population growth varied substantially among sites and years. All populations had their greatest growth in the same year, suggesting potential synchrony associated with climate conditions. Differences in survival contributed most to spatial variation in population growth, while differences in reproduction contributed most to temporal variation in population growth.

Conclusions: Populations of this extremely narrow endemic appear stable, with positive growth during our study window. These results suggest that populations of R. austro-oreganus are able to persist if their habitat is not eliminated by land-use change. Nonetheless, its narrow distribution and synchronous population dynamics suggest the need for continued monitoring, particularly with ongoing habitat loss and climate change.